A New Theory of Evolution — Memphis, Meta, and Metal

Wisdom has it that evolution is the solution if you’re gonna win. Anyone who played the Pokemon TCG between 2012 and 2017 would have doubts about that, though, as Big Basics decks in this era were too powerful for slower decks that wanted to evolve their Pokemon. Even though I would argue that, since Guardians Rising, evolution is indeed the solution once again (even aggressive superstars like [card name=”Buzzwole-GX” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Rayquaza-GX” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card] are partnered with evolved Pokemon now), it’s not actually my topic today. I don’t want to talk about the evolution of Pokemon (in the game), but about the evolution of decks (in the metagame). If you want to have continued success in the Pokemon TCG, it is a necessity that you evolve both your game and your decks to keep up with changes in the metagame.

Let’s start with a simple example: if everyone plays Paper, you should play Scissors. Unless you expect everyone to have the same reasoning, in which case you should play Rock. Of course, this idea is harder to put into practice; the Pokemon TCG has more than three playable decks, and each one comes with its own variants, its own tech options, and its own matchups — which tend to be less polarized than the ones in Rock-Paper-Scissors. Yet making a correct metacall is often the key to a successful tournament run. A deck that is strong one week can be a terrible play the next week, despite the format being the same. So how does it work? How does a metagame evolve? How do players adapt to it? That is the topic of this article. We will look at the results from Memphis as a way to illustrate this theme, and explore some ideas of where the metagame could go next — including a talk about the new promo Solgaleo-GX.

1. The Memphis Metagame

1.1. The Data

[cardimg name=”Malamar” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM117″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

You have probably already seen the results of the most recent Regional Championship last weekend in Memphis. Daniel Altavilla beat Gustavo Wada in a [card name=”Malamar” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card] mirror match in the finals. As I predicted last week, [card name=”Buzzwole” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Lycanroc-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card] made its return, though it had more success than I thought: it comprised half of the Top 8! Finally, [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card] and Rayquaza-GX also made Top 8.

Thanks to RK9 Labs, we can study these results in more detail. For example, Rayquaza / [card name=”Vikavolt” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”52″ c=”name”][/card] was the most represented deck in Day 2, with 17 players playing the deck (21% of the field). Out of these 17, one made Top 8, an additional two made Top 16, and an additional five made Top 32. This is about what we could expect on average, if all players in Day 2 were ranked randomly. In other words, in Day 2, Rayquaza neither overperformed nor underperformed. This fits with how we perceive the deck: a solid choice that always performs well, but doesn’t take tournaments by storm. Note that I’m not looking at the performance of the deck in Day 1 here; that would require statistics that are not available. Regardless, the Day 2 performance is more significant when trying to determine whether a deck was a good play or not — Day 2 is when players are sure to face solid opponents with proven decks.

Looking at Malamar (excluding the [card name=”Shrine of Punishment” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”143″ c=”name”][/card] versions), there were 14 players using the deck in Day 2 (roughly 18% of the field). Among these players, eight were in Top 32 and five of those were in Top 16. If the results were random, you would expect 20% of each archetype to make it to the top 20% of the field, however 37% of the Malamar players made it. To put it another way, 31% of the Top 16 was comprised of Malamar decks, when they only made up 18% of the field in Day 2. This points to good performances by the Malamar players, and particularly by the popular list featuring [card name=”Chimecho” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”43″ c=”name”][/card], which won the event and had two additional spots in Top 16.

Buzzwole / Lycanroc was the most successful deck in Day 2 by most metrics. Only nine players reached Day 2 with the deck — a fact which could point to it doing poorly in the Day 1 field or, more likely, that it was not played as much as other archetypes. Four of these players went on to make Top 8, and another one made Top 16. This means that another 31% of Top 16 was Buzzroc decks, when they made less than 12% of the field on Day 2.

On the other hand, two popular archetypes underperformed. Out of the 12 Zoroark decks that made Day 2, only three reached Top 32, and Buzzwole / [card name=”Garbodor” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card] / Shrine only got one spot in Top 32 out of the already meager five spots it had in Day 2.

We could continue breaking down the numbers, but there is little point in writing down all the data. More interesting is finding out why the results turned out the way they did.

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1.2. Analysis

Zoroark-GX is in a bad spot right now. There are too many techs needed, for too many matchups:  [card name=”Dedenne” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”88″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Tapu Koko” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM30″ c=”name”][/card] for Rayquaza-GX, [card name=”Acerola” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”112″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Devoured Field” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card] for Buzz / Shrine, [card name=”Sudowoodo” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”66″ c=”name”][/card] for Malamar, [card name=”Weakness Policy” set=”Primal Clash” no=”142″ c=”name”][/card] for Fighting stuff, etc. A dedicated Zoroark list can beat any of these decks, but not all of them. Worse, the deck doesn’t even have the advantage of consistency until we get the new Professor Elm’s Lecture Supporter. That is why players began to shy away from the deck in Memphis, and will probably continue to do so.

[cardimg name=”Shrine of Punishment” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”143″ align=”left” c=”none”][/cardimg]

In general, Shrine of Punishment did not have a good showing. The only copy of the card in Top 8 was as a tech in Grant Manley’s Zoroark / [card name=”Magcargo” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”24″ c=”name”][/card] deck! This is far from the success that the card had in Santa Catarina Regionals, or even in Philadelphia and Frankfurt. There is a good reason for that: Shrine is a victim of its own success. It is a dead card in mirror matches, and even in matches where it could matter people are adapting more and more to the card. Daniel Altavilla’s winning Malamar list, for example, only plays five Pokemon-GX, and several of them are best used from the discard pile. Against a Shrine of Punishment deck, you are able to use exclusively non-GX Pokemon (making an exception only for a possible Moon’s Eclipse GX turn). This makes the opponent’s Shrine of Punishment almost useless and turns any extra copies into dead cards. Similarly, even though the Buzzroc decklists in Memphis made a bit more use of Buzzwole-GX than Pedro Torres’s list, they can still play the opening turns like a non-GX deck, benching only Pokemon like [card name=”Rockruff” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”75″ c=”name”][/card], Buzzwole, Magcargo and [card name=”Diancie Prism Star” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card]. Again, this removes most of the usefulness from Shrine of Punishment. Factors like these are quickly turning Shrine of Punishment into one of the least useful parts of Shrine decks. Additionally, it is interesting to note that the highest-placing Buzz / Garb / Shrine player in Memphis was Zach Lesage, who was also the only player to decrease his deck’s count down to two copies of Shrine.

Finally, Shrine decks are losing their good matchups. Zoroark decks are seeing less play, and Rayquaza decks have fully adapted: they’re playing two or even three non-GX attackers ([card name=”Dhelmise” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”22″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Shining Lugia” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM82″ c=”name”][/card]) and are relying more on [card name=”Volkner” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”135″ c=”name”][/card] for their setup, which means they are not playing as many Items as before. Garbodor used to be a strong attacker for Shrine decks facing Rayquaza, but these adjustments make them less vulnerable to Trashalanche.

Some players tried to adapt to the metagame by going the spread route with Tapu Koko and Shrine of Punishment: some in a Buzz / Shrine shell, others as part of a [card name=”Passimian” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”73″ c=”name”][/card] deck, or still others with Malamar and other non-GX attackers like Shining Lugia. The idea of spread decks is that they can have an advantage against other Shrine of Punishment decks by just spreading damage and then moving it all with [card name=”Tapu Lele” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”94″ c=”name”][/card], which leads to Knocking Out all the opponent’s attackers at the same time (or at least multiple key Pokemon) and skipping Buzzwole’s Sledgehammer turn. They also benefit from powerful cards such as [card name=”Counter Catcher” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”91″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Counter Energy” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”100″ c=”name”][/card]. Although the idea is sound in theory, it must be considered a failure for now: combining the three archetypes listed above, 10 spread decks made Day 2 in Memphis, but only three made Top 32 and none reached Top 16. This is especially disappointing since several top players, such as Azul Garcia Griego and Rahul Reddy, played Passimian and missed Day 2.

[cardimg name=”Tapu Koko” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM31″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Like Buzz / Garb / Shrine, spread decks run into the same issue of their Shrine of Punishment failing to do much in matchups against a sizeable portion of the field. They also have their own consistency issues. Like other non-GX decks, they do not have access to [card name=”Tapu Lele-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”60″ c=”name”][/card]’s Wonder Tag. This issue is compounded by the fact that when you are spreading damage with Flying Flip, you are not directly dealing with your opponent’s attacker. This means that it is easier for them to KO your Pokemon, so you have to keep finding Pokemon and Energy cards at a faster rate than other decks. Of course, you have attackers other than Tapu Koko, which you can use to KO the main threats to your board, but again, this means that you have to keep finding the right answers to your opponent’s cards.

On the flip side, Malamar has shown once more that it is a very good deck. With the lack of significant comeback mechanics in the game right now and the consistency they gain from item cards like [card name=”Mysterious Treasure” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”113″ c=”name”][/card], Malamar decks can build an insurmountable board, where they can power up a new attacker every turn. They do so with minimal consistency issues.

Buzzwole / Lycanroc lists were quite varied. Some played 2-2 Magcargo, some went down to 1-1, and some omitted it entirely. Various splits of Buzzwole to Buzzwole-GX from 4/1 to 2/3, were played. Some lists played up to three Lycanroc-GX and four [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”HeartGold and SoulSilver” no=”103″ c=”name”][/card], others played no DCE at all, and some players included [card name=”Zygarde-GX” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”73″ c=”name”][/card]. Whatever the version, the deck has a better Malamar matchup than expected. Obviously, the non-Psychic-weak attackers are better now that Malamar has confirmed its status as a Tier 1 deck.

Before we wrap up, I should note that my interpretation of each deck’s success or failure is not guaranteed to be flawless. We are only looking at one tournament and luck plays a role in the game. Still, I think it is important to search for an explanation whenever we can. Doing so allows us to understand the mistakes we may have made in preparing for the event, and also helps us do better next time. Next, let’s see how the metagame may evolve again thanks to the results in Memphis.

1.3. Looking Forward

In order to prepare for the next event, especially at a Regional-level or higher, the first thing to do is look at what did well. [card name=”Malamar” set=”Forbidden Light” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card] and Buzzwole / [card name=”Lycanroc-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card] were the stars of Memphis, so it stands to reason that many people will turn to these decks. Conversely, some players who played [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card] or Buzz / Garb / Shrine may abandon these decks after their bad results. [card name=”Rayquaza-GX” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Vikavolt” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”52″ c=”name”][/card] is still a consistent deck and should still be a safe play for many players.

Malamar lists have been pretty refined by now, with Rukan Shao’s list taking second and first place at two consecutive Regionals, so you should expect to face it. However, no consensus yet exists on the best Buzzroc list. I personally like the idea of Zygarde-GX and think it warrants further testing.

Now, of course, you could decide that you should play Malamar or Buzzroc, and you probably wouldn’t be wrong — these are very solid decks. However, you could also think about other options that would have a favorable matchup against these decks. Here are some ideas:

[cardimg name=”Sudowoodo” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”66″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

• [card name=”Sudowoodo” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”66″ c=”name”][/card] is an effective tech, both against Malamar and Buzzroc. When facing the latter, you can even search it out with your opponent’s [card name=”Brooklet Hill” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”120″ c=”name”][/card]! Of course, you need a deck that can afford the Bench space. Zoroark-GX / [card name=”Golisopod-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”17″ c=”name”][/card] could be that deck, since [card name=”Golisopod-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”17″ c=”name”][/card] is effective both against Buzzroc’s Grass-weak Pokemon and against Malamar, which has a hard time KOing it (especially after Armor Press). Golisopod-GX is less effective than Lycanroc-GX in the mirror match, but we expect less Zoroark anyway, and unlike Lycanroc-GX it can be played under [card name=”Chimecho” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”43″ c=”name”][/card]’s Bell of Silence effect. Attentive readers will object that I said earlier that Zoroark decks are not in a good spot. It’s true that I wouldn’t recommend them as a whole; however, in the specific context of a metagame that trends away from Shrine decks and towards Malamar and Buzzwole / Lycanroc, Zoroark / Golisopod seems interesting. Such a deck would probably include [card name=”Deoxys” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”67″ c=”name”][/card] to better counter Malamar and Buzzwole-GX as well as possibly including Dedenne for Rayquaza decks.
• Spread decks have not been very effective so far, but the lists may not have been optimized. Malamar / Shrine is the most interesting of the spread variants, in my opinion, but it does not fit the current metagame. The deck’s coolest option is Black Ray GX and this is not as useful when Zoroark decks (which tend to play the most Pokemon-GX) are in a decline. Still, one spread Pokemon that could make a comeback is the Rule-of-Evil [card name=”Weavile” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”86″ c=”name”][/card]. 60 damage to all Pokemon with Abilities is nothing to scoff at when one of the most successful decks around plays a bunch of 90 HP Pokemon with Abilities. By using fast-powered Pokemon like [card name=”Latios” set=”Shining Legends” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card] to spread damage in the beginning of the game, the deck could have a way to beat Malamar quickly — this last adverb is important, as spread decks can fall to their own consistency issues if the game goes too long.

It is always a good exercise to practice meta analysis and prepare for how you might adjust. However, all of this is pretty theoretical because the next Standard Regional is after the next set releases. There are obviously League Cups coming up everywhere in the world as well. But these concepts may only marginally apply — metagaming a League Cup is more about knowing your local scene than anything. Some players will keep a close eye on Regionals results and play whatever just won, but others will stay true to their pet deck.

As noted above: the next major events to be relevant to my American readers are the Latin America International Championship and Roanoke Regionals, in November, both of which will have Lost Thunder legal. There’s no doubt that the massive expansion will shake up the metagame! European readers might want to take more note. My own country of France will host the next Special Event in Lille, on the third and fourth of November. Lost Thunder will not be legal yet, but the metagame may have shifted because of League Cup results since then, so what seems good now may not be in November. There is also another card that will have entered the format by then, which I want to talk about right now.

2. Heal Everything!

Spread decks try to put damage everywhere on your board, which they can then use in some way to reach a win condition, such as manipulating damage counters with Magical Swap. More generally, [card name=”Shrine of Punishment” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”143″ c=”name”][/card] tends to accumulate damage on your board if you’re playing a GX deck. What would be good against theses strategies? An attack that heals all damage in play sounds pretty good.

There are three such attacks in the game, all of them GX attacks: [card name=”Primarina-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”42″ c=”name”][/card]’s Grand Echo GX, [card name=”Altaria-GX” set=”Dragon Majesty” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card]’s Euphoria GX, and the new Promo Solgaleo-GX‘s Prominence GX.

[cardimg name=”Pokemon Center Lady” set=”Generations” no=”68″ align=”left” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Primarina-GX can be set aside for now. It sounds cool to play a deck that deals huge damage with Bubble Beat after accumulating and keeps Energy in play with [card name=”Aqua Patch” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”119″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Exp. Share” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”118″ c=”name”][/card] (and perhaps [card name=”Super Boost Energy Prism Star” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card]!). However, it is a Stage 2 deck without anything to help its consistency.

Altaria-GX combines well with the other [card name=”Altaria” set=”Dragon Majesty” no=”40″ c=”name”][/card] from Dragon Majesty, but its Energy requirements are awkward, and Bright Tone is not a very good attack when so many current decks use non-GX attackers. I have tried to make similar concepts work ([card name=”Noivern-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card] / Altaria could bring Item-lock in the format) and they are just too inconsistent. These concepts might be worthwhile to revisit once Professor Elm’s Lecture is available.

Our third option with the new Solgaleo-GX looks like a fantastic card — as we all expected when the card was initially revealed, seven hundred billion years ago. Yes, it is a Stage 2. That means that the upcoming Alolan Ninetales-GX will make it more playable. Still, there are reasons to explore the card’s concept in the pre-Lost Thunder format.

Solgaleo-GX fixes a lot of Zoroark-GX’s issues. It removes its Fighting Weakness, which helps it not only against Buzzwole / Shrine and Buzzwole / Lycanroc, but also against Malamar’s [card name=”Marshadow-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”80″ c=”name”][/card]. Solgaleo can heal the whole board, which helps against Shrine and spread decks. It can retrieve Energy from the discard, which means that the deck doesn’t lose to [card name=”Sylveon-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card] — and given Sylveon’s Weakness, Solgaleo destroys it. And, thanks to the [card name=”Solgaleo-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card] from Sun and Moon, it has a much higher damage output.

To be fair, Zoroark-GX’s consistency issues will still exist. However, they might be more manageable since Solgaleo-GX can give Zoroark a much better board state: if you can heal all damage and remove weakness for the rest of the game, taking some damage in the beginning and losing a Zorua or two probably doesn’t matter as much.

Here’s a first draft of the deck.

[decklist name=”Zoroark/Solgaleo” amt=”60″ caption=”” cname=”Sudowoodo” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”66″][pokemon amt=”18″]4x [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Zorua” set=”Shining Legends” no=”52″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x Solgaleo-GX (Promo)1x [card name=”Solgaleo-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”89″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”Cosmog” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”64″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x [card name=”Tapu Lele-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”60″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Sudowoodo” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”66″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”32″]4x [card name=”Lillie” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”125″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”Guzma” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”115″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”Cynthia” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”119″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Mallow” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”127″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”2″][/card]4x [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Shining Legends” no=”68″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Nest Ball” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”123″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Rare Candy” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”142″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”Timer Ball” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”134″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”Max Potion” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”128″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Rescue Stretcher” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”130″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Choice Band” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”121″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]2x [card name=”Devoured Field” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”93″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”2″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”10″]6x [card name=”Metal Energy” set=”Evolutions” no=”98″ c=”deck2″ amt=”6″][/card]4x [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”Evolutions” no=”90″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card][/energy][/decklist] 

This list is a starting point. [card name=”Max Potion” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”128″ c=”name”][/card] should be better than Acerola in a deck with high-HP evolution Pokemon and the ability to recover Energy from the discard. Two copies of Devoured Field should be enough because Shrine of Punishment is likely to see less play, and Solgaleo-GX deals effectively with Shrine decks anyway. Similarly, we can go down to one [card name=”Choice Band” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”121″ c=”name”][/card] because the Sun and Moon [card name=”Solgaleo-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM16″ c=”name”][/card] can OHKO priority targets if needed, and this deck should play the 2HKO game except for uses of Sunsteel Strike. The high count of Lillie is important because getting it turn one helps dramatically with establishing a successful board setup on turn two. Although I’m not a big fan of [card name=”Apricorn Maker” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”124″ c=”name”][/card], it might be useful to have it in this deck to find the right Pokemon at the right time. Gustavo Wada played three Apricorn Maker in Philadelphia and that’s something to try out while developing your build from this skeleton.

A blatant issue with this list is its lack of answers to Chimecho and [card name=”Hoopa” set=”Shining Legends” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card]. The latter hasn’t been relevant in this format yet, but the former was a key innovation in the winning Memphis list. [card name=”Deoxys” set=”Celestial Storm” no=”67″ c=”name”][/card] could be included to OHKO Chimecho, as well as generally being an efficient attacker against both Malamar and Buzzroc. [card name=”Solgaleo Prism Star” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card] can also be included in the deck — with its Resistance to Psychic, it can act as wall against Chimecho. If the Malamar deck uses Marshadow-GX to copy Chimecho’s Bell of Silence attack, Solgaleo Prism Star can eventually threaten to KO it with Corona Impact. The biggest worry with this card is that it is hard to power it up with so few Metal Energy in the deck. Even with that concern, later in the game it can be powered up by Solgaleo-GX’s Turbo Strike and act as a powerful one-Prize attacker.

Conclusion

That’s all for me this week! With Portland Regionals on the horizon, we’ll take a look at the Expanded format next week. [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”name”][/card]’s ban made a lot of Abilities more relevant in the format, so we’ll explore some long-forgotten decks that could have a resurgence this season.

Until next time, best of luck in your League Cups and Challenges!

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