Knowing the Odds — How to Optimize Consistency and Avoid Drawing Dead Hands

What’s up, PokeBeach nation? Steve here, and I’m back with a unique new article for you guys today! Before I begin, however, I’d like to wish my son Axel one last Happy Birthday! He turned one-year-old this past weekend. My little buddy lights up my life every day and gives me inspiration to do what I do.

Anyways, back to business. With Spring Regionals currently going on and the U.S. National Championships less than two months away, it’s time to start looking at the big guns for the 2016 season as we count down to Worlds. Today, I’ll be going over the importance of draw power, its role in building a consistent deck list, and most importantly — how to apply mathematics to improve your deck list and decision-making skills. I will also talk about my number one deck choice as of late for the upcoming National Championships.

Fundamentals of a Deck

When building a deck, you want to make sure it’s as consistent as possible. This is especially important at larger scale events where matches are best-of-three and you’re often playing eight or nine rounds of Swiss to begin with. Consistency is the most important aspect of a successful deck. This generally indicates fewer one-of cards and thus fewer tech cards in a deck.

Space is often tight in deck lists, so you’re forced to cut some cards in order to make room for the necessary pieces. Cutting too many copies of certain cards can hinder a deck’s performance, however, resulting in dead hands and a less consistent setup from game to game. While bad hands are a part of the game and can happen to anybody, you can reduce the chances of drawing poorly by constructing your deck with consistency in mind. How can you make your deck more consistent? I’m glad you asked!

The simplest strategies often prove to be the most effective; setting up the board and executing the given strategy is common to every game. By default, this means that you have a chance to win almost every game you play. Of course, a strategy that requires fewer cards will almost always be more consistent, as it requires you to draw fewer specific cards to get set up to ultimately claim a victory. As an example, let’s take a look at Night March, the deck that dominated this year’s State Championships.

[decklist name=”NM” amt=”60″ caption=”” cname=”Joltik” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”26″][pokemon amt=”15″]4x [card name=”Joltik” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”26″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Pumpkaboo” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”44″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Lampent” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”42″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”41″]4x [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]1x [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Flashfire” no=”90″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Teammates” set=”Primal Clash” no=”141″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Xerosic” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”119″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Puzzle of Time” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”109″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x [card name=”Fighting Fury Belt” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”99″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Acro Bike” set=”Primal Clash” no=”122″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Target Whistle” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”106″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Startling Megaphone” set=”Flashfire” no=”97″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Buddy-Buddy Rescue” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”135″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Escape Rope” set=”Plasma Storm” no=”120″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Town Map” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”136″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Float Stone” set=”Plasma Freeze” no=”99″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]3x [card name=”Dimension Valley” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”93″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”4″]4x [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”HeartGold and SoulSilver” no=”103″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card][/energy][/decklist] 

You may notice that several cards are being run in fours in this list. This is the essence of consistency — being able to draw and maintain the necessary resources to continually execute your strategy turn after turn until you eventually claim a win. While Night March typically offers enough space for a couple of techs — such as [card name=”Startling Megaphone” set=”Flashfire” no=”97″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Town Map” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card] in this case — the core of this list remains consistent. Having four copies of each Night Marcher is essential for any Night March list, and running a full suite of [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”107″ c=”name”][/card] helps the deck maintain resources and continue to draw necessary cards when other options are taken away. This is extremely helpful against Item lock in particular, as Night March players are always reliant on their Item cards and often sacrifice precious draw Supporters in order to make their decks faster. With that said, faster can also mean riskier and less consistent.

Imagine this scenario: You have your attacker ready to go, but find yourself still needing a [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”HeartGold and SoulSilver” no=”103″ c=”name”][/card] to fulfill Night March’s Energy cost. Would you rather have an extra two copies of [card name=”Acro Bike” set=”Primal Clash” no=”122″ c=”name”][/card] to try and dig for it, or would you prefer to play a Supporter like Professor Sycamore instead? Unless you need to use a different Supporter card that turn, the answer is almost always going to be the Sycamore. What if you miss the Double Colorless Energy off of your Professor Sycamore? Well, there are two points here. First, if you missed on the top seven cards, you were definitely going to miss on two or four cards. However, by drawing seven cards, chances are also greater that you draw into an [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card], which can draw you even more cards as you continue to dig for your precious Energy. Simply put, the more cards you draw, the greater the odds are that you’ll get what you need.

Different Types of Draw Power

Supporters

The most basic form of draw power in the Pokemon TCG comes in the form of Supporters. Whether it’s [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”N” set=”Black and White Black Star Promos” no=”BW100″ c=”name”][/card], or [card name=”Ace Trainer” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”69″ c=”name”][/card], Supporter cards offer several unique methods of draw power. Including enough of these Supporter cards in a list is essential to almost every deck in the game, offering consistent access to resources and speeding you along to the cards you need. Many decks are already running four copies of Professor Sycamore, which is generally viewed as the game’s most powerful draw Supporter. With N returning to Standard, we now have a solid secondary draw Supporter to pair with Professor Sycamore. Expanded, on the other hand, has another supreme draw Supporter in the form of [card name=”Colress” set=”Plasma Storm” no=”135″ c=”name”][/card].

Professor Sycamore

[cardimg name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Let’s start with our ace Supporter — and no, I don’t mean [card name=”Ace Trainer” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”69″ c=”name”][/card]. Usually you will end up playing most of your hand before using Professor Sycamore, which makes the discarding minimal. Also, Professor Sycamore will always net you seven cards; there are no coin flips or other game-state conditions that can alter its power. Therefore, this is the most consistent draw Supporter in the game. When building the draw engine for a new deck, four copies of Sycamore is typically a good place to start.

N

Coming in second place for the most consistent draw Supporter is our longtime friend and newly reprinted favorite — [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card]. When compared to [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”name”][/card], this effect could be considered bettor or worse. Since the number of cards each player draws off of N is reliant on how many Prize cards that player has remaining, the power of N varies throughout the course of the game. The variation goes far enough for me to say that N is more of a disruptive Supporter, as opposed to a draw Supporter, during the later facets of the game. It’s also important to remember that N shuffles your previous hand back into your deck, while Professor Sycamore discards it. This often makes N the superior play when you can’t empty your hand before playing your Supporter of choice. Nonetheless, make sure you aren’t giving your opponent too big of an advantage when using it.

Ace Trainer

Third in line, we have [card name=”Ace Trainer” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”69″ c=”name”][/card]. Why is this card even on this list, you ask? Well, for decks that tend to fall behind early on or aim to win by decking out the opponent, Ace Trainer will almost always be a live card after the first couple of turns. Unlike [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card], Ace Trainer will always grant you a full six cards after you shuffle your old hand back, and will always leave your opponent with a new hand of only three cards. Ace Trainer isn’t for every deck, but it is definitely something to keep in mind when building something new, as some decks take more time to set up than others. They often yield a Prize or two to the opponent before they get running.

Colress

Unfortunately, [card name=”Colress” set=”Plasma Storm” no=”118″ c=”name”][/card] is only legal in the Expanded format. Colress is a massive draw Supporter that benefits from every Benched Pokemon in play, yours and your opponent’s! While [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”name”][/card] will always grant you seven cards, Colress could net you a hand of up to 10 cards! As an added bonus, if [card name=”Sky Field” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card] is in play, Colress gains even more power and can draw you a colossal 16 cards! Talk about a monster draw source!

Items

Of course, not all draw power in Pokemon comes from Supporters. For example, there are Item cards such as [card name=”Fiery Torch” set=”Flashfire” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Roller Skates” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”103″ c=”name”][/card], and even [card name=”Paint Roller” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card] which can offer Item-based draw power. While Item-based draw is typically weaker than its Supporter-based counterparts, there is no limit to how many Item cards you can play in a single turn. Therefore, if you were to flip heads on Roller Skates and draw into another copy, you could play that one too.

The downfall is that Item-based draw cards tend to be situational. Fiery Torch requires that you discard a Fire Energy from your hand, netting you zero additional cards. Paint Roller has a requirement of needing a Stadium card in play. After discarding said Stadium card, you get a measly one card. That’s not much in the form of draw power. Then there is Roller Skates, which can draw you three cards without a cost or prerequisite for use. The catch here is that Roller Skates requires a coin flip, and if the result is tails, you lose the effect altogether. Despite only working half the time, I still feel that Roller Skates is the best of these three cards, as well as the most splashable.

Pokemon

Pokemon-based draw power can come in the form of Abilities or attacks. Since the main purpose of Pokemon is to score KOs against the opponent, this form of draw power is less powerful. A Pokemon’s attack or Ability is rarely effective enough to find you a majority of the cards you need. This is why they work well in conjunction with draw Supporters and Items. Between all options, necessary cards can be found consistently.

Attack-Based

While draw power in the form of an attack may look appealing at first, it lacks speed since attacking ends your turn. This eliminates the possibility of using any of your newly drawn cards until your next turn, provided the opponent doesn’t play an [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Ace Trainer” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”69″ c=”name”][/card], or [card name=”Judge” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”143″ c=”name”][/card] to send your hand back into the deck first. This makes cards like [card name=”Kangaskhan-EX” set=”Flashfire” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Deoxys” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”33″ c=”name”][/card] look better on paper than what they actually are. Even [card name=”Lucario-EX” set=”Furious Fists” no=”107″ c=”name”][/card], whose Corkscrew Smash attack deals a solid amount of damage while increasing your hand up to six cards, struggles to see much play anymore. Ultimately, attack-based draw power is too slow for the current format, making it mostly ineffective in competitive play.

Ability-Based

[cardimg name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ align=”left” c=”custom”]Pick Shaymin-EX; he’ll set you up![/cardimg]

What about Ability-based draw power? Well, that’s a whole different story than attack-based draw. One of the biggest and most popular draw cards in the game uses an Ability to do so. Yes, I am talking about [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card]. Ever since its release in Roaring Skies, Shaymin-EX has been a staple in nearly every single deck in both Standard and Expanded. This is largely due to the fact that it’s able to provide a Supporter-like effect without actually using up your Supporter for the turn. The drawback? Well, Shaymin-EX has only 110 HP, and since it is a Pokemon-EX, it gives up two Prize cards when it is Knocked Out. That shouldn’t stop you from playing this incredible card, though; it single-handedly boosts the consistency of almost every deck in the game. For this reason, Shaymin-EX carries a high price tag. Some players still shy away from having a two-Prize Bench sitter with only 110 HP because of how easy it can be for the opponent to pick off at any time.

Fortunately, there are other options when it comes to Ability-based draw. [card name=”Octillery” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”33″ c=”name”][/card] is probably the next best thing after Shaymin-EX, offering an Ability that lets you replenish your hand to five cards once per turn. The best part is that it is not a two-Prize liability like Shaymin. With [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card] returning to Standard, Octillery will become even better because it negates a late-game N to one or two cards.

Another card with a similar Ability is [card name=”Delphox” set=”XY” no=”26″ c=”name”][/card], although she is a Stage 2 Pokemon and, therefore, takes a bit more work to get into play. While both Octillery and Delphox’s Abilities are nice, having to bring any Pokemon into play through evolving weaker Basic Pokemon is a bit more of a chore than simply benching a Shaymin. While I do like Octillery and Delphox, I don’t think they’re anywhere near as powerful right now as even a single copy of Shaymin-EX.

Reach and Retrieval

In addition to all the aforementioned draw cards, there is also [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”name”][/card]. With every copy of VS Seeker in your deck effectively acting as another Supporter card, you now have four more draw Supporters, should you need them. Also, using all four copies of VS Seeker on draw Supporters like [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”XY” no=”122″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card] means that you won’t be able to retrieve tech Supporters such as [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Flashfire” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”name”][/card]. So what else is there?

Another card that can retrieve cards from the discard pile is [card name=”Puzzle of Time” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card]. Of course, since you have to play two Puzzle of Time at once to gain its retrieval effect, you will only be able to do this twice per game. While the effect is powerful, chances are you won’t be grabbing two draw Supporters at once, especially since you can only play one Supporter per turn. It does provide the advantage of being able to grab specific cards though, as compared to randomly drawing.

Next are what I call reach cards. These cards include [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Acro Bike” set=”Primal Clash” no=”122″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Random Receiver” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card] as the main headliners, with their ability to reach for Trainers or anything else you may be looking for. Each of these three cards can add one additional card to your hand, whether it’s limited to a Trainer or Supporter card specifically, or any card in the case of Acro Bike. While none of these cards offer much versatility, they can each fetch you something helpful. This creates a chain of resources, eventually providing you with whatever the situation calls for.

Lastly, there is specific reach cards, otherwise known as search cards, that can pull a specific type of card from the deck. Whether you are able to search for the card you need directly or have to search for a source of draw power, these cards can be just as powerful and strong as a draw Supporter itself. A solid example is [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”name”][/card]; it can fetch you a [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] while simultaneously reducing the number of cards in your hand. Shaymin then further increases the chances of you drawing what you need. In Expanded, [card name=”Jirachi-EX” set=”Plasma Blast” no=”60″ c=”name”][/card] has proven to be as helpful as Shaymin and searchable in the same means. In both cases, you are turning every copy of Ultra Ball in your deck into a viable form of draw power by having access to either Shaymin-EX or Jirachi-EX. How cool is that!?

[premium]

Let’s Do the Math

Now that I’ve gone over the simple stuff, it’s time to get into some basic math. I will continue to use the Night March list posted above for this section to go over exactly how many forms of draw power this list has to offer. I will then present you with the probability of hitting a draw card consistently throughout the course of the game, and how knowledge of both your Prize cards and the contents of your deck will benefit you here.

This list includes four copies of [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”name”][/card] and three copies of [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card], giving it a total of seven draw cards. This is a bit on the low end, so there needs to be a sufficient way to obtain these seven cards throughout the course of the game. [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”name”][/card] is here to help, offering free access to any Supporter in the discard pile. This effectively gives us eight copies of Professor Sycamore, and bumps the number of draw cards up to 11. That still seems a tad risky, though. Fortunately, the list includes four copies of [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”name”][/card], which can grab a Shaymin-EX when needed. With Ultra Ball acting as a form of draw power through Shaymin-EX, there’s now a total of 15 draw cards in the deck — 1 / 4 of the deck as a whole.

Although not a direct form of draw power, four copies of [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card] is also included in this list to thin the deck out. This card can be used in one of two ways: It can discard three cards you don’t need to increase the chances of drawing something useful, or it can simply pitch a Supporter which can then be retrieved via VS Seeker. Battle Compressor can also be helpful when discarding a Pokemon that can be retrieved by a nifty Item card — [card name=”Buddy-Buddy Rescue” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”135″ c=”name”][/card].

While dumping and retrieving a copy of Shaymin-EX might not be the optimal use for Buddy-Buddy Rescue, it’s a viable strategy and it’s the sole reason this card is used instead of [card name=”Revive” set=”Black and White” no=”102″ c=”name”][/card]. Buddy-Buddy Rescue offers a 16th draw card in this manner, but I wouldn’t be so quick to count Battle Compressor as a draw card. Instead, I’d consider one copy of Battle Compressor to be the equivalent to one half of a draw card. Why half, you ask? Simply put, Battle Compressor only acts as a draw card when combined with another card like VS Seeker or the aforementioned Buddy-Buddy Rescue. As half of a two-part combo, this card then becomes half of a single draw card. This brings the draw card total up to 18.

[card name=”Puzzle of Time” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card], a dual-effect Item card that has made a lot of noise since its release in BREAKpoint three months ago, is another awesome method for obtaining cards that you need. Both effects of this card can be helpful in the hunt for draw power, so let’s take a look at them. Upon rearranging the top three cards of your deck, you have the ability to put a draw card, or way to obtain a draw card, on top so that you can have optimal draw power for next turn. The second effect, however, is much more powerful. Of course, you’re probably not going to be grabbing more than one draw card with this, and two copies of Puzzle of Time are required in order to use this effect. Once again, I will be counting this card as half of a draw card. This brings the draw card total up to an even 20, or 1 / 3 of the deck.

Next there is [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card], which can help you reach for Trainer cards when necessary. While there’s already a total of 20 draw cards in the deck, it’s important to remember that three of them are Shaymin-EX, and thus cannot be acquired via Trainers’ Mail. That leaves 17 available options in the form of 21 cards, which still maintains roughly one out of every three cards to be some type of potential draw support. Since Trainers’ Mail shows the top four cards of your deck, you should always manage to hit one of these 21 cards, and more often than not, one of the 13 cards that isn’t Battle Compressor or Puzzle of Time. This means, mathematically, you should almost always be able to pick up a form of draw power upon using Trainers’ Mail.

Unfortunately, the world is not perfect and things don’t always fall the way we want them to. For example, your opening hand could consist of multiple copies of Professor Sycamore or maybe a few VS Seeker that you have to discard all at once. This means you have fewer remaining sources of draw power left in your deck, and would then lessen the chances of obtaining one off of Trainers’ Mail for the remainder of the game. There is also the possibility that you end up with Buddy-Buddy-Rescue or VS Seeker but no target in your discard pile and no Battle Compressor to put one there. The same problem can occur in the mid-to-late game with Ultra Ball, as you may have run yourself out of Shaymin-EX to use for draw power. These inconveniences are bound to happen occasionally, just like drawing a completely dead hand can happen regardless of how much draw power your list includes.

The beauty behind all of this is that you aren’t relying on Trainers’ Mail to obtain draw power. Upon playing a Professor Sycamore or Shaymin-EX, there is a pretty good chance you will end up with another form of draw power or way to obtain one right away, thus eliminating the need to reach for one. However, Trainers’ Mail remains a dependable option, should you need it in order to get out of a dead hand.

The last form of draw in this Night March list is practically a less powerful version of Trainers’ Mail — [card name=”Acro Bike” set=”Primal Clash” no=”122″ c=”name”][/card]. The difference here, at least in terms of draw power, is that Acro Bike can grab you the Shaymin-EX that Trainers’ Mail couldn’t. Playing Acro Bike will also thin your deck by two cards instead of only one. The chances of drawing whichever cards are left in the deck have now been slightly improved. Thinning the deck by one or two cards might not seem like much, but every little bit counts. Be sure to remember that Acro Bike can also force you to throw away something valuable if you pick up two cards and need them both — I’ve Acro Biked into a pair of [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”Next Destinies” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card] before and believe me, it’s not fun. Acro Bike is a highly aggressive card, with a higher risk than something like Trainers’ Mail, but also a higher reward since it can get you any card as opposed to only Trainer cards. This applies not only to draw power, but also to a Pokemon, Stadium, or even an Energy card you may need.

How Likely am I to Have a Draw Card?

There are other variables that affect the chances of drawing a specific card during the course of a game besides only how many of each draw card is in your list. To begin with, your opening hand will consist of seven cards, with at least one being a Basic Pokemon. That leaves, at most, six cards left in your hand to find your first draw resource. Including your six Prize cards and the card you will draw on your first turn, there will be 46 cards remaining in your deck.

The formula to figure out the probability of drawing a specific card is a simple: X / Y, with “X” representing the number of copies of the desired card(s) still in the deck, and “Y” representing the total number of cards remaining in your deck. The “Z” factor here is your Prize pool. For this reason, it is imperative to identify which six cards are Prized every game, the first time you get an opportunity to look through your deck. It’s also important to have your deck list memorized so you will always know which cards are left in your deck and what the chances are of drawing them.

The Night March list contains four copies of [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”name”][/card]. Let’s assume one copy is Prized, with three more copies in the deck. You have a [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card] in your hand, with all four copies of [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”name”][/card] still in the deck. Your deck contains 46 cards and you’re trying to decide which three cards to discard with a [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card]. If you choose not to discard a Professor Sycamore and then play Trainers’ Mail, your deck will have three targets out of 43 cards. Assuming all three [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] and all four [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”name”][/card] are also in the deck, that gives you seven targets for Trainers’ Mail, which calculates to approximately 16% of your deck. That’s approximately a 64% chance that one of the desired targets will reside within the top four cards of your deck.

However, if you were to discard one of your three remaining copies of Professor Sycamore with the Battle Compressor, you’ve now sacrificed one of those targets in order to add four more in the form of VS Seeker. Essentially, this effect netted you three additional copies of Professor Sycamore at the cost of discarding one. Your targets now occupy roughly 23% of your deck, giving you over a 92% chance of reaching one of them via Trainers’ Mail. Talk about a difference! If you happen to have an [card name=”Acro Bike” set=”Primal Clash” no=”122″ c=”name”][/card] in hand, you can play it before Trainers’ Mail to reduce your deck size by two cards and increase your odds even more. Combining Acro Bike with Trainers’ Mail will get you a total of six cards to choose from, rather than four. Acro Bike can also grab Shaymin-EX directly, making up for the fact that it only lets you choose between two cards. With both cards in hand after having discarded one copy of Professor Sycamore, you now have a 65% chance of reaching a draw card with Acro Bike. What if you miss? Don’t worry, Trainers’ Mail now offers you a 97% chance of success immediately after! With those odds, you’ll be drawing more cards and attacking much sooner than ever before.

Remember, as your options shrink due to use and discarding throughout the game, so does the size of your remaining deck. This is why it is important to always know both the number of cards remaining in your deck as well as which cards they are. This can help you decide when it’s okay to make a riskier, more aggressive play versus a safer, more conservative play.

This thought process can also work on the opponent’s cards, although you’ll likely need to estimate how many copies of any given card the opponent is running. For example, if the opponent’s discard pile contains one copy of [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Flashfire” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card] and two copies of [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”name”][/card], with 14 cards remaining in his or her deck, three cards in hand, and two Prize cards left; what are the odds that he or she will gain access to Lysandre next turn? Let’s assume the opponent is running two copies of Lysandre and four VS Seeker, which is quite common. With 19 cards still unknown, each card has an approximate 16% chance of being a Lysandre or VS Seeker. The opponent will draw again on his or her turn, meaning 4 / 19 cards will be what the opponent is looking for. With four cards in hand and a nearly 64% chance of already having access to Lysandre, things aren’t looking too good. Throw in the possibility of any remaining copies of Shaymin-EX or Ultra Ball, and there’s now a more serious problem that can result in a near-guarantee that the opponent will be able to use Lysandre on his or her next turn.

A Strategy to Alter the Odds

It’s time to move away from Night March and talk about Item lock and how it changes the odds. Using the scenario from earlier, let’s say you used Quaking Punch with [card name=”Seismitoad-EX” set=”Furious Fists” no=”20″ c=”name”][/card] and the opponent needs [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card] for the win. Both of your opponent’s [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”110″ c=”name”][/card] became useless, leaving him or her with one copy of Lysandre that he or she needs in order to win this turn. This also takes away any options of using [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Flashfire” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card], and since [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”106″ c=”name”][/card] are generally Benched early on in the game, the opponent may only have one copy left. This would put the opponent at about a 10% chance of having Lysandre in hand after drawing for the turn, while Shaymin-EX could net an extra three cards, or an additional 18% chance of obtaining it. Finally, if the opponent does not have either of these cards directly in hand, he or she will need to draw for them. A draw Supporter will definitely crank up the odds, but it will also use up their Supporter play for the turn, affording you another turn to take care of business.

As you can see, from the reduced chances of the opponent being able to pull a specific card, even in that one scenario, Item lock is an incredibly powerful strategy. While Seismitoad builds often have more room for techs and consistency buffers, it is the [card name=”Trevenant BREAK” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”66″ c=”name”][/card] deck that currently reigns as the game’s best deck with the goal of implementing this particular strategy. Trevenant BREAK deals more damage and has almost as much HP as Seismitoad-EX, while only yielding a single Prize to your opponent when it is Knocked Out. However, Item lock decks sacrifice pure power in order to maintain this strategy, and can eventually be overpowered by something bigger, like an [card name=”Yveltal-EX” set=”XY” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card]. If you can prevent that from happening, though, the benefits of Item lock can be highly rewarding.

My Sleeper Pick for U.S. Nationals

Now it’s time to discuss, what I believe, will be a huge sleeper pick for this year’s National Championships — [card name=”M Sceptile-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”85″ c=”name”][/card]. Yes, the same M Sceptile-EX that was hyped up last fall and failed to live up to its lofty expectations. What makes it different this time around? Well, the card itself hasn’t changed, nor has much of the deck for that matter. What has changed is the meta surrounding it. With [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card] returning to Standard, Night March will fall back to the pack. It will still see play, but it will no longer be in a tier of its own. With that said, two popular decks heading into Nationals appear to be M Alakazam-EX and [card name=”Greninja BREAK” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card]. I touched on Greninja last time, so now I’m going to touch on the Frogs’ worst nightmare. Forget the fact that Greninja is weak to Grass for a moment, and look at M Sceptile-EX’s Ancient Trait, Theta Stop. With this trait in effect, M Sceptile-EX is impervious to the Abilities of cards like Alakazam-EX, [card name=”Crobat” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”33″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Golbat” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”32″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Greninja” set=”XY” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card], and Greninja BREAK. To make things even crazier, there are currently no effects in the game that shut down Ancient Traits, meaning that once M Sceptile-EX hits the board, the opponent is going to have to work harder than ever to get rid of it. Unfortunately for the opponent, right when M Sceptile-EX is about to bite the dust, it gets healed by another copy of himself! Talk about frustration, ladies and gentlemen. Anyways, if either M Alakazam-EX or Greninja decks end up seeing as much play as I think they will this summer, M Sceptile-EX is the best answer to that meta. Here is my current list I’m working on:

[decklist name=”Mega Sceptiles!” amt=”60″ caption=”” cname=”M Sceptile-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”85″][pokemon amt=”13″]4x [card name=”M Sceptile-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”85″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”Sceptile-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”7″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]1x [card name=”Sceptile-EX ” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY53 ” c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]2x [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Ariados” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”6″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Spinarak” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”5″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Hoopa-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”36″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”37″]4x [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”101″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x [card name=”N” set=”Noble Victories” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Flashfire” no=”90″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”AZ” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”117″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Super Scoop Up” set=”Diamond and Pearl” no=”115″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Sceptile Spirit Link” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”80″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]1x [card name=”Professor’s Letter” set=”XY” no=”123″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Energy Retrieval” set=”Black and White” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Super Rod” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”149″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”Forest of Giant Plants” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”74″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”10″]10x [card name=”Grass Energy” set=”EX Emerald” no=”101″ c=”deck2″ amt=”10″][/card][/energy][/decklist][cardimg name=”M Sceptile-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”85″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Something you may notice is my inclusion of the promo [card name=”Sceptile-EX ” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY53 ” c=”name”][/card] in this list. While [card name=”Sceptile-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”7″ c=”from”][/card] is usually superior, the promo version’s Agility attack can help out in a pinch. This is especially useful if you need to stall for a turn while setting up the rest of your board, or claim Prizes against difficult matchups like Night March. Aside from Night March and any Fire-type decks, however, M Sceptile-EX should be fine with its ability to heal when attacking and tank long enough to avoid OHKOs from the likes of [card name=”Yveltal-EX” set=”XY” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card] and its companions. You could always try to fit in a couple [card name=”Giratina-EX” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] and some [card name=”Double Dragon Energy” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”97″ c=”name”][/card] if you’re worried about [card name=”M Rayquaza-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”76″ c=”name”][/card], as Giratina can fit into this deck pretty nicely to begin with. If Night March didn’t have Mew from Fates Collide joining its ranks, I would’ve included Giratina in my list from the start. Mew gives Night March a reliable answer to the Renegade Pokemon, yet making it much less effective against the Ticks, Pumpkins and Lanterns that have terrorized Standard for the last few months. Still, with [card name=”N” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card]’s return and the rise of M Alakazam-EX, Night March should see a bit less play than before. Greninja’s positive Night March matchup only reinforces this theory, making M Sceptile-EX that much better of a deck choice due to how effective it can be against both of these decks.

Conclusion

That’s all I’ve got for you guys today. I hope you enjoyed my article, and I hope I didn’t get too technical with the percentages and stuff. My goal was to demonstrate the practical application of mathematics in the Pokemon TCG to show that consistency doesn’t boil down to only swag; probability is what you should be considering. If you have any problems with any of your current lists, give my method a try to help you out. If you guys have any questions or need any help, feel free to comment below. If you would like more personalized help, go to the Subscriber’s Secret Hideout. Without further ado, I hope to see you all at the U.S. National Championships in my hometown of Columbus!

Cheers!

Steve Guthrie

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