Red October — Moving from Expanded Arizona to the Standard East Coast

By: John Kettler · Posted Sep 26, 2016 at 12:37 PM · 0 Comments

The Hunt for Red October is a story about a fictional commander of a submarine who – whether crazy or not – defects from Soviet Russia and takes the crazy step to sail his sub all the way to the East Coast of the United States. He wasn’t sure what would happen, and the characters around him weren’t sure if he was sane, but he took his ultimate weapon all the way to the opposite end of the Earth.

A lot of you readers will be taking out ultimate weapons of your own. Maybe not nuclear-caliber submarines, but definitely some great decks to handle the Regional Championship metagame. This season, we have two alternate formats for the same stretch of the season, and not a whole lot of time to prepare for them!

[cardimg name=”Team Aqua Admin” set=”Double Crisis” no=”25″ align=”right” c=”custom”]A little revolution now and then is a healthy thing, don’t you think?[/cardimg]

Today, I’ll do my best to help you stay afloat for both events. We’ll talk about big picture topics such as what to make of previous events and surprise plays to get around issues in Expanded and Standard, as well as what I consider to be good choices for both events.

Arizona Regionals and Expanded

Worlds 2.0

It’s no secret that much of the format at the upcoming Regional Championship in Arizona will look in many ways like the Worlds format revisited. I fully appreciate that XY – Steam Siege and BW – Steam Siege are different formats, but the availability of [card name=”Dark Patch” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Eelektrik” set=”Noble Victories” no=”40″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Hypnotoxic Laser” set=”Plasma Storm” no=”123″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Archeops” set=”Noble Victories” no=”67″ c=”name”][/card], and Ace Specs won’t change the excitement some people may feel about playing, say, [card name=”Greninja BREAK” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Talonflame” set=”Steam Siege” no=”96″ c=”name”][/card] in a serious event for the first time. There are also a surprising number of people who want to keep playing Night March despite its (relatively) weak showing at this past Worlds. I can only speculate if it’s because people earned their biggest successes of their careers with it, or they know that Karen is coming (see below), but I sense lots of motivation from the community to go use [card name=”Joltik” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”26″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Pumpkaboo” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”44″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Lampent” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”42″ c=”name”][/card] one last time.

At any rate, many of the players going to Arizona will be easing themselves into this new season, and through extension this first and only major tournament to use the BW – STS version of Expanded. Easing into a new format entails playing something you know well, or alternatively something which is a proven quantity and could predictably do well. For those reasons, I’d expect to see some Greninja, lots of interesting variants on [card name=”Vileplume” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”3″ c=”name”][/card], Night March, Water Box, Metal, and more. The only exception to this I expect is [card name=”M Audino-EX” set=”Fates Collide” no=”85″ c=”name”][/card], which has a hard time with the raw power provided by [card name=”Hypnotoxic Laser” set=”Plasma Storm” no=”123″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Dark Patch” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card], and others.

What are the implications of so many people huddling to Worlds-proven decks? For one, it will make your day more predictable, as the fewer people using wild deck ideas, the better a time you’ll have pinpointing a safe play with good odds of winning. For another reason, it allows you to make a simpler secondary set of metagame predictions than normal: Rather than worry about what new, radical idea will come out, a sizable chunk of the field will be using the most streamlined of the streamlined, and may in fact do little more than netdeck winning lists, although they will hopefully take the last step and add in an Ace Spec!

But perhaps most useful of all is that by knowing of a deck, and by being able to make reasonable assumptions about that deck’s engine, you could find great ways to exploit holes in the ever-growing Expanded metagame. A few players at last year’s Houston Regional were rewarded greatly by deciding to tech in a copy of [card name=”Ghetsis” set=”Plasma Freeze” no=”101″ c=”name”][/card], so as to punish players whose decks were heavily reliant on Items. Ghetsis at that point was underplayed, but players’ direct knowledge of the popularity of [card name=”Blastoise” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”31″ c=”name”][/card] and Night March the immediate season before benefitted them, and so you saw numerous people in day two of that tournament packing Ghetsis to great success. I’m not saying we will see a repeat of that with some other card, but it certainly opens up the possibility.

[cardimg name=”Yveltal-EX” set=”XY” no=”79″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

This is Yveltal’s Show

So after just talking about how much Regionals will look like Worlds why I am turning around and saying that [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”name”][/card] is the deck to beat, a deck that was not notable at all for Worlds?

Anyone who followed the entirety of the Regional Championship series last season knows that Yveltal variants never faltered in Expanded, unflinchingly earning Top 8, finals seats, and wins in all age groups. Even when we got radically new sets, it still did well! It was also fascinating to see how a combination of Canadians and Californians arrived at bigger, better evolutions of the deck eventually making what would be a dominant turbo list.

Why is Yveltal still such a force in a field where nearly every major deck over the past five years is not only legal, but viable to some degree as well? That’s because among all of those decks, Yveltal has been the most consistent of them. It has remained consistent because nearly every new set has given it something new helpful. It’s also remained on top because it is the perfect storm of Energy-acceleration, space-efficient Basic Pokemon as your attackers, options, bulk, and theoretically unlimited damage thanks to Evil Ball. Contrast that to Night March, which is definitively glass cannon; or to Speed [card name=”M Rayquaza-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”76″ c=”name”][/card], which can take a lot more cards simply to arrive at marginally better results than [card name=”Yveltal-EX” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY150″ c=”name”][/card] on a normal day.

I concede that I may be exaggerating the weaknesses of both of these decks: Night March’s status as a glass cannon attacker didn’t stop it from dominating much of last season, and all the cards required to use Emerald Break didn’t stop M Rayquaza-EX from winning Canadian Nationals. But when you break it down, Yveltal is the best deck in Expanded precisely because there is no room to exaggerate its weaknesses, which are few to none. Even its reliance, or arguable over-reliance, on Items is neutralized through a mix of [card name=”Pokémon Ranger” set=”Steam Siege” no=”104″ c=”name”][/card], exploiting the Weakness advantage against [card name=”Trevenant” set=”XY” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card], good play, and a bit of luck.

Speaking of all those things, what would I do with Yveltal? I don’t plan to go to Arizona, but listed below is currently how I am presently running Expanded Yveltal, and most likely how I would run it if I did go to Arizona.

[premium]

[decklist name=”Expanded Yveltal” amt=”60″ caption=”” cname=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″][pokemon amt=”12″]3x [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”Yveltal-EX” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY150″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Darkrai-EX” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”63″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Jirachi-EX” set=”Plasma Blast” no=”60″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Mewtwo-EX” set=”Next Destinies” no=”54″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Keldeo-EX” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”49″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Mr. Mime” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”97″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”35″]3x [card name=”Professor Juniper” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”98″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”N” set=”Fates Collide” no=”105″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”AZ” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”91″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Delinquent” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”98″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Flashfire” no=”90″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Pokémon Ranger” set=”Steam Siege” no=”104″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Dark Patch” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”93″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Max Elixir” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Float Stone” set=”Plasma Freeze” no=”99″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Computer Search” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”137″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]2x [card name=”Reverse Valley” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”110″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Silent Lab” set=”Primal Clash” no=”140″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”13″]9x [card name=”Darkness Energy” set=”Generations” no=”81″ c=”deck2″ amt=”9″][/card]4x [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”HeartGold and SoulSilver” no=”103″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card][/energy][/decklist]

As I said above, Californians and Canadians were at the heart of modern Expanded Yveltal as we know it. My list here largely reflects those trends, but it also reflects a desire to be prepared for and beat the mirror match. I run three [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”from”][/card] because put simply, it is the best non-EX attacker you can ask for in the mirror: It handles all kinds of opposing non-EX Pokemon well, sets up four Prize plays, and when swarmed, could literally win a game all on their own. There is also a practical benefit to Yveltal because Fright Night encourages misplays of all kind during a long day.

[cardimg name=”Wailord-EX” set=”Primal Clash” no=”38″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

There are several offensive and defensive decisions in this build which relate to the mirror. Maximum [card name=”Max Elixir” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”102″ c=”name”][/card] (I love the sound of saying that), four [card name=”Dark Patch” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Reverse Valley” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”110″ c=”name”][/card] combined with [card name=”Fighting Fury Belt” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card] make for a surprise OHKO to be very feasible. I also run a [card name=”Mr. Mime” set=”Generations” no=”52″ c=”name”][/card] so as to reduce the odds I get hit by opposing Bench damage from Night Spear or Pitch-Black Spear, and even run a [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”name”][/card] on top of a [card name=”Silent Lab” set=”Primal Clash” no=”140″ c=”name”][/card] to shut off opposing Mr. Mime!

There are other options which may help mirror: [card name=”Parallel City” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”145″ c=”name”][/card] is a surefire method of ensuring your opponent has no [card name=”Jirachi-EX” set=”Plasma Blast” no=”60″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] to snipe away at a moment’s notice. [card name=”Max Potion” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”103″ c=”name”][/card] is also a great surprise move. But as the list is shown here, I feel it’s already strong enough against the mirror, while maintaining its other matchups, which as we’ve discussed are as varied as the entire five-year history of Pokemon cards.

What Else Could Be Good in Arizona?

Although I have a lot I feel about Expanded, and have come to enjoy it more and more, my advice for the whole first half of the article boils down to two words: Play Yveltal.

What if you don’t want to do that, though? That’s okay, just be sure that you beat it. I won’t belabor you with lists when my fellow writers have already exhausted other good builds in Expanded, but I believe Night March could be a surprise sleeper hit in Arizona. Its worst matchups, [card name=”Wailord-EX” set=”Primal Clash” no=”38″ c=”name”][/card] and Archie’s [card name=”Blastoise” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”31″ c=”name”][/card], are not nearly as competitive as they once were, and Night March can easily exploit the war Yveltal players are waging against each other by doing what it does well, which is to explode with damage every game.

Additionally, Wailord-EX could be an even bigger surprise in Arizona. Yes, the same passive deck-out variant that made the finals of U.S. Nationals could enjoy a good day if all it saw were Yveltal and Night March opponents. Many of its hard bad matchups, such as [card name=”Primal Groudon-EX” set=”Primal Clash” no=”86″ c=”name”][/card], will be nearly insurmountable, but this is the sort of deck that could legitimate cruise its way to at least a Top 8 or Top 4 berth if timed right.

Final Thoughts Heading into Arizona

All things, risks, and possibilities considered, I think you’ll benefit using a more stable, reliable deck. This is the first Regional Championship of the season after all, so even if your stable, reliable deck has some new weaknesses thanks to Steam Siege, those weaknesses might not yet be fully exposed, allowing you a much greater chance at a win. This is truer than at any other point in the season, because the first Regional Championship of the season will set your precedent for the rest of the season. The Championship Point and invitational structures were announced at the time of writing, and with a 500 Championship Point minimum just to make day one in the Master division, it will take consistent results to get there!

Orlando Regionals and Standard

Moving to the East Coast and Orlando regionals, we find three major differences in our approach which require us to start from ground zero. First, there’s the obvious one, which is the shift in format from Expanded to Standard; second, we have a different precedent to rely on in determining what is or isn’t a good play; and third, there’s the legality of Karen.

[cardimg name=”Fiery Torch” set=”Flashfire” no=”89″ align=”right” c=”custom”]When he reached the New World, Cortez burned his ships to motivate his men.[/cardimg]

Don’t Read into the Results of Arizona Regionals

Although we have had Regionals run as two separate formats in the past, we’ve never had a shift from one Regionals being run in an entirely different format than the next. Because this is relatively unprecedented, I think it’s important to emphasize what you may remember from preparing for States versus Regionals: Do not stress yourself too much with whatever may come out of Arizona’s Expanded Regional Championship.

Will [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”name”][/card] win in Arizona like I think? Maybe but that has zero bearing on the way you approach Orlando’s Standard Regional Championship, and probably little bearing on the number of people who use Yveltal there. Or perhaps something else will take the title? Same difference. The main takeaway here is that for the most part, you should mostly not worry about what comes out of Arizona.

That said, you shouldn’t completely ignore Arizona Regionals either, as it’s the first major event since Worlds where Steam Siege was legal. Despite Worlds being the ultimate stage for competitive Pokemon card players, the metagame there was still an immature application of Steam Siege‘s card pool.

Do Read into the Results of Recent Standard Tournaments but Don’t Read Too Much into Them

This past weekend, a continuation of the Alternate Reality Games Open series (“ARG open”) took place in the State of Oklahoma. There’s no doubt that good players rose to the top, and there’s also no doubt that the decks that did well there were good. [card name=”M Mewtwo-EX” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”64″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Volcanion-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”26″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Vespiquen” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”10″ c=”name”][/card], and Dark all made impressive appearances.

It isn’t a perfect parallel to what we should expect in Orlando. For one, Orlando will have at least five times the amount of players as the ARG Open in Oklahoma, as well as a better cross-section of the national metagame as opposed to a reflection of a regional metagame. In addition to this, the ARG Open didn’t actually result in a winner; instead, the Top 8 players split the prize pool. That sort of result greatly limits what we can draw from ARG Open as a research tool.

However, I’d like to discuss what I consider to be the one major new development from the ARG tournament: that Dark paired with [card name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ c=”name”][/card] can be really, really good. Two players, Neil Williamson and Austin Baggs, used the deck, and had the tournament gone to a conclusion, I think this concept had the best chance of winning. Of course, that may also be my bias in favor of Yveltal, as evidenced by the previous discussion. Let’s take a look at a skeleton list.

[decklist name=”aa” amt=”50″ caption=”a” cname=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″][pokemon amt=”8″]2x [card name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Yveltal-EX” set=”XY” no=”79″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”30″]4x [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”107″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”N” set=”Fates Collide” no=”105″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”2″][/card]4x [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”109″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Fates Collide” no=”113″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Max Elixir” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x [card name=”Fighting Fury Belt” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”99″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Super Rod” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”149″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”12″]8x [card name=”Darkness Energy” set=”Generations” no=”81″ c=”deck2″ amt=”8″][/card]4x [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”Fates Collide” no=”114″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card][/energy][/decklist]

Free Slots – 10 (Three should be Stadiums)

The core Pokemon in this skeleton are not enough, so definitely add more. One option you could try, which Neil went with to great success, was running a large count of Yveltal, including a 3 / 1 split between [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”from”][/card] and [card name=”Yveltal” set=”XY” no=”78″ c=”from”][/card]. I as a playstyle preference would trend to something that looks like this, because both Fright Night and Oblivion Wing are powerful attacks in both building and sustaining momentum with efficient non-EX Pokemon. [card name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ c=”name”][/card] gives both of these attackers a lot of mileage though, so I would limit the count to three, seeing as how there’s no longer an existential threat like Night March which demands you always have a non-EX just to survive.

[cardimg name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Neil’s list also ran an [card name=”Umbreon-EX” set=”Fates Collide” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card], supplemented by two [card name=”Ninja Boy” set=”Steam Siege” no=”103″ c=”name”][/card] and the two Mew. This multi-layered strategy against Mega decks, and [card name=”M Mewtwo-EX” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”64″ c=”name”][/card] in particular, is a really scary way to draw a quick four Prizes before the opponent can even expect it. However, in a format where [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] remains unchallenged by everything but [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Pokemon Catcher” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”105″ c=”name”][/card], the practical utility in an Umbreon-EX endgame drop is shakier than it would be in previous formats. Meanwhile, Austin’s list ran a couple [card name=”Darkrai-EX” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card], making his version a more traditional variant of Turbo Dark. I think two Darkrai-EX in the floating spots would be the more stable option: It can hit hard on its own, but offers you a very cheap method of OHKOing M Mewtwo-EX if a Garbodor is not in play. Even if Garbodor is in play, Darkrai-EX itself plays a key role in the attacker “juggle,” in which you attempt to win on 2HKOs without ever being Knocked Out in a single hit.

The Trainer list here is extremely vanilla, and that’s okay. The idea behind Turbo Dark hasn’t changed since last season, and max counts of your crucial Items makes that happen. The only obscure choice which I’ve incorporated into the list is two [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”name”][/card]. That’s because in this format, simply drawing into powerful cards as Hex Maniac is no longer simple without [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card]. The math, then, of drawing into Hex Maniac through [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card] increases dramatically. It’s that same reasoning why I’ve found great success with three [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card] in lists, as we’ll discuss later.

Make sure to run enough Stadium hate. I think three Stadiums – or two and a [card name=”Delinquent” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”98″ c=”name”][/card] – would be the best way to assure that you’ll never be lorded over by an adverse [card name=”Parallel City” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”145″ c=”name”][/card], or worse still, a Stadium with healing implications like [card name=”Shrine of Memories” set=”Primal Clash” no=”139″ c=”name”][/card] (for M Mewtwo-EX and Damage Change) or [card name=”Rough Seas” set=”Primal Clash” no=”137″ c=”name”][/card]. Which Stadiums you choose can vary, but I personally like two [card name=”Reverse Valley” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”110″ c=”name”][/card] and a single Parallel City. That’s because the Reverse Valleys go a long way in helping our Dark attackers reach damage milestones, while the single Parallel City is enough to discard easy Prizes like damaged Pokemon and low-HP targets like [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] at least once a game.

Eight Darkness Energy is the absolute, bare minimum to play in a deck like this. I personally prefer ten, but because this is a skeleton meant to be the starting point, not the end-all, of discussion and testing of the deck, I only provide for eight.

As one final note, the reason why [card name=”Delinquent” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”98″ c=”name”][/card] is a part of my list in Expanded but not here is because of the purpose of this particular list, which is to serve as a skeleton build. Since this is a skeleton, I am focusing more on what I deem the essential choices before personal preferences. Furthermore, since you still have a significant difference in time to prepare, it’s more appropriate of me to suggest specific advice in Expanded, and generalized advice in Standard.

Don’t Read Too Much Into Karen’s Presence

We have one major card which will be introduced to Standard between now and the upcoming Standard Regional Championship in Orlando, which is of course Karen from the Keldeo vs. Rayquaza deck. Unlike other subjects, I don’t feel like discussion of Karen has been exhausted yet, it is without a doubt a game-changer in at least a few matchups. Decks that rely on Pokemon being in the discard like [card name=”Vespiquen” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”10″ c=”name”][/card] are hurt by its presence. However, decks in general are now less dependent on easily lost or wasted one-ofs like [card name=”Super Rod” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”149″ c=”name”][/card] being discarded in the early game, meaning that whatever scary attacker you’re up against is a lot more likely to return.

That right there is where I believe discussion of Karen is lacking right now. There is a lot of talk only about what gets hurt by Karen, so of course that talk settles on Vespiquen. But what decks are aided by Karen the most? One deck, which I think benefits from Karen’s presence for just about every cognizable reason, is an experimental, new-age Water Box.

[decklist name=”New Age Water Box” amt=”60″ caption=”undefined” cname=”Regice” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”24″][pokemon amt=”11″]2x [card name=”Regice” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”24″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Articuno” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”17″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Glaceon-EX” set=”Fates Collide” no=”20″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Manaphy-EX” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”32″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Aurorus-EX” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY148″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”36″]4x [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”XY” no=”122″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”N” set=”Fates Collide” no=”105″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]3x [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Flashfire” no=”90″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”Hex Maniac” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”75″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Misty’s Determination” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”104″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”EX FireRed and LeafGreen” no=”100″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Max Elixir” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”102″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”Fighting Fury Belt” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”99″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]1x [card name=”Super Rod” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”149″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]3x [card name=”Rough Seas” set=”Primal Clash” no=”137″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”13″]10x [card name=”Water Energy” set=”EX Ruby and Sapphire” no=”106″ c=”deck2″ amt=”10″][/card]3x [card name=”Double Colorless Energy” set=”HeartGold and SoulSilver” no=”103″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card][/energy][/decklist]

Again, this is only an experimental list, but I think it’s exemplary of how not only can you control a tough matchup like [card name=”Vespiquen” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”10″ c=”name”][/card], but keep a constant stream of your dangerous attackers in other matchups as well. Being able to regenerate [card name=”Regice” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”24″ c=”name”][/card] up to six times can be particularly nasty, even when an opponent can shut the effect of Resistance Blizzard off with [card name=”Pokémon Ranger” set=”Steam Siege” no=”104″ c=”name”][/card].

Problems and Solutions of Standard

Going into Orlando, I’ve seen in my testing of Standard a few issues which so far most people haven’t really tried to address.

Problem: People Build Decks Exactly the Same as from XY-on

In the coming weeks before Orlando, you should carefully evaluate the preconceptions you’ve had about building decks. Let’s take a look at one very subtle difference between decks in XY-on and PRC-on, but one which is significant enough to make a change appropriate.

Normal inclusions in any Standard deck, 2015-2016:

Four [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card]
Two [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card]
Two [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card]

Normal inclusions in any Standard deck, 2016-2017:

Four [card name=”VS Seeker” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card]
Two [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card]
Zero [card name=”Battle Compressor” set=”Phantom Forces” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card] because it rotated

You can already see where I’m going with this. Matt Price touched on this in his article, but the loss of Battle Compressor is huge in many crucial list designs. The probabilities of using Lysandre, in turn, go down. I’m not saying your list needs three Lysandre here, though I’ll suggest it in the next point. What I am suggesting though is that the way you see things needs to change, if it hasn’t already.

Problem: Garbodor is Unchecked

Consider running more [card name=”Lysandre” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”78″ c=”name”][/card], or even [card name=”Pokemon Catcher” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”105″ c=”name”][/card]. For the first time since any Garbodor has ever existed, we finally have a format where Garbodor’s Garbotoxin can run rampant, it can’t be halted easily thanks to a [card name=”Tool Scrapper” set=”Dragons Exalted” no=”116″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Startling Megaphone” set=”Flashfire” no=”97″ c=”name”][/card]. That in my opinion is a huge format design flaw, but as it stands, the best option we have is to kill Garbodor itself (or better yet, kill the [card name=”Trubbish” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”56″ c=”name”][/card] on turn one).

Both a higher Lysandre count, and / or running Pokemon Catcher can do this for us. With a higher Lysandre count of three, or perhaps keep it at two and run four [card name=”Trainers’ Mail” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card], the odds you keep the Trubbish from becoming a threat increase. The above [card name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”name”][/card] skeleton, for example, could easily Knock Out Trubbish before it evolves or gets its Tool into play.

In some decks, I would also consider the merits of Pokemon Catcher in tandem with, or even in place of Lysandre copies. That’s because in a tense situation where you’re drawing through 15 – 20 cards of your deck, there is simply no safe time to stop and use your Supporter for the turn on a Trubbish! It may be a riskier play, but I would keep this option in the back of your mind should the time to implement it ever be right.

Problem: Weakness Makes a Big Difference

[card name=”Weakness Policy” set=”Primal Clash” no=”142″ c=”name”][/card] is now a viable answer to Weakness, and it can’t be stopped! It’s fair to say that, absent luck and strange circumstances, most Fairy decks should lose to [card name=”M Scizor-EX” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card]; most Scizor lose to [card name=”Volcanion-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”26″ c=”name”][/card]; and so on. The only thing I would suggest in deciding whether or not Weakness Policy is a good choice is if your chosen “Policy Pokemon” is already taking a lot of work to set up. Compare the two M Rayquaza-EX cards: whereas the Dragon [card name=”M Rayquaza-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”61″ c=”name”][/card] takes five Energy to attack, and would lose you a turn of attacking due to not being able to [card name=”Rayquaza Spirit Link” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”87″ c=”name”][/card], Colorless [card name=”M Rayquaza-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”76″ c=”name”][/card] will cost you fewer cards to set up, and through its Ancient Trait mitigate the chances you waste an important attack opportunity. Now if only M Rayquaza-EX could handle [card name=”Klefki” set=”Steam Siege” no=”80″ c=”name”][/card] better…

Final Thoughts about Other Decks in Standard

In the weeks leading up to Regionals, I know my fellow authors will give you some specific ideas on the final deck discussions necessary to help you make the most informed choices possible. I don’t think more lists will help from me for these points, but it is necessary to address their overall viability. You already know what I think about Yveltal-anything (it’s great), as well as what I think about a modified Water Box (it’s a sleeper with tons of potential). But here’s where I view the other top decks heading into the Orlando Regional Championship.

Rainbow Road

[cardimg name=”M Mewtwo-EX” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”64″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Rainbow Road is a deck that’s on everyone’s radar, but early field results and testing have shown me that it might not be as high on people’s radars as it should be. As discussed by many other authors, [card name=”Xerneas” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”107″ c=”name”][/card], when fully setup with a slew of different-typed Pokemon on the Bench, can “Emerald Break” without the downsides of being a Lightning-Weak Pokemon-EX. And in the right matchups at the right time, a Xerneas with [card name=”Fighting Fury Belt” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card] is nearly unstoppable. Xerneas is a great example of a deck which has been discussed into oblivion, but if it helps any, I’d like to give it my endorsement as a first choice if you’re unsure what to bring with you to the Orlando Regional Championship, or any upcoming Standard tournament, for that matter.

For the record, I really don’t think we need dual types to make this work. The attacks of [card name=”Galvantula” set=”Steam Siege” no=”42″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Bisharp” set=”Steam Siege” no=”64″ c=”name”][/card] may be neat and even useful at times, but space is valuable when your main attacker requires so many resources. Plus, the extra damage given by either of them is not usually worth the price as opposed to merely running a better card.

M Mewtwo-EX

[card name=”M Mewtwo-EX” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”64″ c=”name”][/card], usually with [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card], is also a great deck, but one which I think is limited from being overused. I’ve seen format after format where a deck in the early stages of a year picks up instant steam, but is broken down by increasingly sophisticated metagame calls. M Mewtwo-EX run the risk of being another deck in that mold, though it has the saving graces of being a really strong attacker; and mitigating its biggest threats such as [card name=”Klefki” set=”Steam Siege” no=”80″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Yveltal” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”94″ c=”name”][/card] via Garbodor’s Garbotoxin.

I expect it to do well in Orlando, but think that Yveltal variants and especially Rainbow Road have what it takes to keep it from winning.

M Gardevoir-EX (Despair Ray)

I’ve come to like [card name=”M Gardevoir-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card] more and more as the weeks have gone by. In a format where Knocking Out [card name=”Shaymin-EX” set=”Roaring Skies” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] to win is still very relevant, it’s incredibly useful to have the main attack in your deck be all about discarding Pokemon in play. Issues in [card name=”Klefki” set=”Steam Siege” no=”80″ c=”name”][/card] and the type disadvantage to [card name=”M Scizor-EX” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] also seem workable with some goofy splash-ins, like [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Weakness Policy” set=”Primal Clash” no=”142″ c=”name”][/card].

Volcanion

[card name=”Volcanion-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”26″ c=”name”][/card] is perhaps the most overrated deck right now, and it’s a big reason why I’ve chosen not to read too much into the results of the ARG. Don’t get me wrong, I love the mechanics of the deck, and I love how it functions when unimpeded. But this is a [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] format, and unlike many other decks, it has no easy way to Knock Out Garbodor until later in a game. It does do well against a good number of non-Garbodor decks though, and keeps up pace with most other Standard decks discussed here except for Rainbow Road, so perhaps later on it will be a better call.

Vespiquen

[card name=”Vespiquen” set=”Ancient Origins” no=”10″ c=”name”][/card] is the reverse of [card name=”M Gardevoir-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card] for me. That is, I find myself loving it less and less. The return of all sorts of Dark variants doesn’t help its chances, and even despite my warnings here, I think that ARG will have a positive effect on the number of people who end up choosing Volcanion at the much bigger, much more prestigious Orlando Regional Championship. Throw the dreaded Karen into the mix, and you have a horrible climate for Vespiquen.

Conclusion

Well, everyone, it’s less than one week until Arizona, and only a few weeks until Orlando! Best of luck to all of you who choose to attend one or both. You’ll get to your destination, I’m sure, and maybe even get a nice Regional Champion title, to boot.

I just hope you don’t sail across international waters and get hunted by the Soviets!

~John

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