Observing the Prism — Recapping Collinsville and Previewing Charlotte
[cardimg name=”Glaceon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”39″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
Hello all! We’ve had an exciting few weekends! Ultra Prism is now officially part of the competitive Pokemon format, and after Regional Championships in Collinsville, Malmo, and Salvador, as well as special events in Santiago and Guayaquil, we have a much better picture of what the Standard format will look like going forward. We’ve seen multiple new archetypes thus far, including the debut of the much-anticipated [card name=”Glaceon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”39″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Magnezone” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”83″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card]. However, even among all the new, older decks continued to dominate, with strong representation by past favorites such as [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Golisopod-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”17″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Buzzwole-GX ” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”104″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Lycanroc-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card], and even the resurgence of decks such as [card name=”Espeon-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM35″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card]. With all this, we continue to see the evolution and growth of the Standard format.
So, what do we have to look forward to facing in upcoming League Cups and Regionals? Read on, and I’ll give you my analysis of this new format, a recap of Collinsville Regionals, what decks to look out for (both new and old!), and my predictions for the future of the BKT-ULP metagame.
Thanks to the great work of RK9Labs, we have a ton of data available about what was played at Collinsville Regionals. Not only do we have the deck lists available from the top 45 players, we also have information about the meta share of each deck; that is, how many people played each deck in the tournament. From this data, we can see not only what did well, but which decks over performed, under performed, what was popular, and what “hyped” decks failed to show up.
What Did Well
In general, older concepts remained just as dominant as they were prior to the release of Ultra Prism. This new format ended up not being drastically different from that which we saw at Memphis or Sydney. Specifically, Buzzwole-GX and Zoroark-GX remained just as dominant as before. Zoroark-GX was in 19 of the day-two decks in Collinsville, including four of the Top 8, and 13 of the Top 32 in Malmo, including both the first- and second-place decks. Likewise, Buzzwole-GX / Lycanroc-GX was the most played deck of Collinsville, and Buzzwole variants ended up taking ten of the day-two slots in Collinsville (including second and third), as well as nine of the Top 32 in Malmo (including third, fourth, and fifth). Golisopod-GX also remained popular, with eight of the Top 32 in Collinsville, and nine of the Top 32 in Malmo.
In contrast, newer concepts were ultimately disappointing. Just as Crimson Invasion and Shining Legends shook up the format with the debut of Pokemon such as Zoroark-GX, Buzzwole-GX, and [card name=”Silvally-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM91″ c=”name”][/card], Ultra Prism was expected to change things around as well. Going into this weekend, there was wide discussion on these Ultra Prism concepts. Glaceon-GX, [card name=”Leafeon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”13″ c=”name”][/card], Magnezone, Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX, [card name=”Alolan Dugtrio” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Garchomp” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Lucario” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM95″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Empoleon” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”34″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Weavile” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card] were all anticipated to see some play, and players had to test and account for all of them. As it turns out, however, while Ultra Prism seemed flush with strong Pokemon, it’s clear after this weekend that none of them were able to have the same level of effect on the meta as those from previous sets. Indeed, of the 46 decks that made day two in Collinsville, only nine contained any Pokemon from Ultra Prism at all. Of those, most used only tech Pokemon such as Weavile, [card name=”Pachirisu” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”49″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Oranguru” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”114″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Dawn Wings Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”63″ c=”name”][/card]; only three decks revolved around an Ultra Prism Pokemon (Zack Martin’s Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX / [card name=”Registeel” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM75″ c=”name”][/card] / Garbodor deck, Andrew Wamboldt’s Glaceon-GX / Garbodor deck, and Kevin Baxter’s [card name=”Passimian” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”70″ c=”name”][/card] deck). The results in Malmo showed only a bit more success for the new set, with ten of the Top 32 decks utilizing Pokemon from Ultra Prism, while only one of the Top 8 from Salvador could say the same.
However, the format didn’t remain completely stagnant! In Collinsville and Malmo, three decks – Zoroark-GX / Weavile, Garbodor, and [card name=”Volcanion-EX” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY173″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Ho-Oh-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”21″ c=”name”][/card] – had strong performances and popularity not seen in the BKT-CRI format. Two of those decks (Zoroark and Volcanion) took advantage of new cards (Weavile and Dawn Wings Necrozma, respectively), while Espeon-GX / Garbodor was expected to do well by way of a new, more favorable meta. Likewise, Gardevoir-GX decks seemed to collapse as expected; while the prevalence of Gardevoir-GX was about the same as decks like [card name=”Vikavolt” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”52″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Tapu Bulu-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM32″ c=”name”][/card] and ZoroPod, it did not have as much success, only notching two day-two spots in Collinsville, three in Malmo, and being shut out entirely in the three South American tournaments.
The contrast between the success of newer and older deck concepts isn’t entirely surprising. Many times when a new set is released, the “safer” play ends up being the familiar one, particularly when the preexisting decks are relatively strong compared to the new ones. This ended up being the case in the opening weekend – while plenty of people did try new concepts, the majority stuck to tried and true variants of existing decks such as those mentioned above.
There are several advantages to such an approach. First, the deck construction for preexisting decks is already well established; people know how to build a Buzzwole deck, or a VikaBulu deck, and so on. Only slight changes then need to be made to account for new cards (such as [card name=”Cynthia” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”119″ c=”name”][/card]) and to adapt for newly expected decks. In contrast, someone building a Magnezone deck would have to do so more or less from scratch, and thus many such decks will end up with sub-optimal lists.
This disparity in deck construction is important to recognize going forward. While some concepts may have flopped initially, that will not necessarily remain true, particularly as the deck lists for those new concepts get refined. So, even if a particular deck had a seemingly poor play-to-placement ratio, that may not be important if the well-made decks of that variant ended up doing well. In contrast, if a deck failed to perform at all, that may be a warning sign for a lack of playability going forward.
In the case of this format, however, results from Santiago and Salvador seem to confirm the early results. Each of those tournaments did see a [card name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card] deck reach the Top 8, showing some signs of life for that concept. However, Zoroark-GX and Buzzwole-GX decks remained dominant in both tournaments. The strongest indicator from the South American tournaments, however, may have come from the Santiago special event, where first and second place both got captured by Volcanion decks. While the rest of the results seemed more or less predictable based on the results of the earlier Regionals, the Santiago result shows that Volcanion, and Fire decks in general, have earned a reliable spot in this meta.
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The New Decks of Ultra Prism
As I’ve said above, there were many new concepts to come out of Ultra Prism. Some have done well; others, not so much. Let’s take a look at some of these new decks:
Magnezone / Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX
[cardimg name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”90″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
Despite having the most hype of any new deck coming out of Ultra Prism, [card name=”Magnezone” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”83″ c=”name”][/card] decks ended up being the largest dud of the opening weekend by far. In Collinsville, there were 102 Masters playing Magnezone decks — nearly 10% of the field — making it the second-most played deck overall. Yet, even with such a large share of the meta, Magnezone decks ended up doing terribly – not a single one managed to make day two, or even Top 64. While one managed to finish 22nd at Malmo, this is still a poor showing for a deck that was hyped up as tier one.
Oddly enough, while Magnezone variants had a poor performance, decks utilizing Necrozma-GX and [card name=”Solgaleo Prism Star” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card] may have been the most successful decks to come out of Ultra Prism. Zack Martin’s [card name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] “Scrap Heap” deck achieved a day-two finish at Collinsville, while another similar variant made Top 64, and the deck was piloted to a Top 8 finish in Santiago. In Malmo, there were two non-Magnezone / Necrozma decks that made the top 32, one utilizing [card name=”Metagross-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”85″ c=”name”][/card], the other utilizing Registeel and Solgaleo Prism Star. These Metal decks may not have seen as much play as those revolving around Magnezone, but they did have a much stronger performance, and are certainly concepts to look at going forward.
Glaceon-GX
[card name=”Glaceon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”39″ c=”name”][/card] was another deck that was well talked about going into the early Regionals. The card was noted for the diversity of decks it could be played in — potential partners for it included [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Decidueye-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”12″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Alolan Ninetales-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”22″ c=”name”][/card], and Garbodor. These decks combined an interesting mix of disruption, spread damage, and speed; and were reminiscent of old [card name=”Darkrai-EX” set=”Dark Explorers” no=”107″ c=”name”][/card] decks. Again though, few were able to find success with this new concept; of the 51 Glaceon-GX variants at Collinsville, only one made day two, while none managed the same success in Malmo.
It’s difficult to say if this lack of success was due to poor matchups (over ten percent of the field in Collinsville was comprised of Metal decks), or if the deck itself simply ended up being underwhelming. This is a deck that I believe suffered considerably from the lack of available lists; I would not expect it to disappear in future tournaments, especially if Zoroark-GX decks maintain their level of dominance.
Empoleon
[card name=”Empoleon” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”34″ c=”name”][/card] was intriguing as a potential new non-GX deck, and people shared a few lists that showed that the deck had the chance to compete above just a local level. This never translated to success at Regionals, however, as none made a day two finish at any of the Regionals or Special Events.
Garchomp / Lucario
Similar to Empoleon, quite a few looked at this deck as the next great non-GX deck. Indeed, the combo between these two was obvious, and the concept seemed to be one of those ready-made decks to come out of Ultra Prism. Despite arguments about deck build, potential, and even the name of the deck, it ended up not seeing a lot of play, as only 11 people ended up sleeving it up for Collinsville. Unsurprisingly, it also failed to see success, with no placements in either Regionals.
In this case, it seems that the vast majority of players testing it found it underwhelming compared to its competition, and so went in a different direction. While the deck certainly seems strong on paper, in practice it wasn’t nearly as effective.
Alolan Dugtrio
At this point, you may start to notice a pattern – a new Ultra Prism deck is talked about, a few people play it, none of them make day two. Unfortunately for the fans of [card name=”Alolan Dugtrio” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card]’s magnificent hair, the same is true of this deck. In Dugtrio’s case, most seemed to have written it off as a fun, yet ultimately noncompetitive deck. Only seven people ended up playing the deck in Collinsville, and none of them were able to make Top 64.
That said, this is another deck that I think could have a ton of potential with the right deck list, as it does have strong matchups with decks that rely on GX attackers. While this deck may currently be lower-tier, it has great appeal as a cheaper or more off-meta deck, particularly now that more promising lists have been shared.
Zoroark-GX / Weavile
[cardimg name=”Weavile” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”74″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
Now let’s get to the well-performing decks. [card name=”Weavile” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card] proved to be incredibly impactful, taking both first and second in Malmo, as well as two other Top 32 finishes. Weavile fits great into this format; many of the decks currently played heavily focus on Pokemon with Abilities, particularly in games where they play down one or multiple [card name=”Tapu Lele-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”137″ c=”name”][/card]. Against a deck such as Zoroark-GX, Weavile can easily become a OHKO machine, Knocking Out large Pokemon-GX for only a single Energy, while only giving up one Prize in return. Additionally, Weavile has great synergy with Zoroark-GX as far as Energy requirements, thus allowing Zoroark-GX to take advantage of its GX attack, adding yet another trick to this deck. While [card name=”Buzzwole-GX” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] and Lycanroc-GX would appear to cause problems due to Weakness, these decks can easily be dealt with by the inclusion of [card name=”Mew-EX” set=”Dragons Exalted” no=”46″ c=”name”][/card].
However, despite the deck’s early feats, it ended up failing to notch a Top 8 finish at any of the South American events. Charlotte will likely be a test for this deck, as to whether it becomes a reliable top-tier deck, or was just a flash in the pan. Part of the problems for this deck come from the lack of “surprise” factor; now that it is known, it becomes much easier to plan around, either through deck building or utilizing different strategies. Even so, Weavile still remains a dangerous partner, for the reasons listed above. I would absolutely expect this deck to see some play in Charlotte and Portland — how successful it will be remains to be seen.
Volcanion-EX / Ho-Oh-GX / Kiawe
This deck isn’t exactly a brand new concept. Ever since the release of [card name=”Kiawe” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”144″ c=”name”][/card] in Burning Shadows, this deck has seen plenty of play, and is the go-to Fire-type deck in Standard. While it has struggled to find success recently, there were several great developments for this deck with the release of Ultra Prism.
First, it gained an important card in [card name=”Dawn Wings Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”63″ c=”name”][/card]. With this card’s Ability, Necrozma can play the same role that [card name=”Keldeo-EX” set=”Boundaries Crossed” no=”142″ c=”name”][/card] does in Expanded. After using an attack such as Phoenix Burn or Volcanic Heat, you can use Invasion to make Necrozma Active, retreat Necrozma by using [card name=”Float Stone” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”137″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Guzma” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”143″ c=”name”][/card], and thus erase the “can’t attack” effect, allowing you to hit hard again, often for another Knock Out. Further, this Fire deck benefited greatly from changes in the meta. In particular, [card name=”Gardevoir-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card] decks declined, thus cutting out one of Volcanion’s worst matchups. In addition, there was a rise in Metal decks, which remain favorable for Volcanion.
With both of those meta changes happening simultaneously, Fire decks were able to take advantage of a more favorable field, and thus perform well, with three Top 32 placements each in both Collinsville and Malmo. This continued in Santiago, as the deck got both first and second place, even without the Dawn Wings Necrozma-GX in the winning build. If Gardevoir becomes even less popular, or Metal decks more popular, I would expect Volcanion and Ho-Oh decks to continue to play a relevant role in tournaments.
Other New Concepts/Techs
Lurantis Promo
A powerful addition to existing ZoroPod builds, [card name=”Lurantis” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM25″ c=”name”][/card] was used by Ian Robb and Joey Ruttiger to propel themselves to a first-place and eighth-place finish at Collinsville, respectively. Lurantis isn’t a new card; however, it proved to be incredibly strong. When Golisopod is under the effects of one Lurantis, a [card name=”Choice Band” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”162″ c=”name”][/card] allows it to OHKO a Tapu Lele-GX with a First Impression attack, while its Crossing Cut GX attack now OHKOs Buzzwole-GX, Glaceon-GX, [card name=”Ho-Oh-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM57″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”145″ c=”name”][/card]. Manage to get two Lurantis out, and you can suddenly Knock Out 190-HP Pokemon for only a single Energy, while even opposing Zoroark-GX and [card name=”Golisopod-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM62″ c=”name”][/card] will fall to a Crossing Cut!
Basically, Lurantis, when set up, successfully eliminates the previous problem of damage output that ZoroPod decks could suffer from. For a well-detailed look at the power of this card, check out Conner Lavelle’s article on Golisopod / Lurantis.
Mew-EX and Mewtwo
[cardimg name=”Mew-EX” set=”Dragons Exalted” no=”120″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
One of the most sought after cards prior to Collinsville, [card name=”Mew-EX” set=”Dragons Exalted” no=”120″ c=”name”][/card] was added to many decks as a potential counter to Buzzwole-GX, while [card name=”Mewtwo” set=”Evolutions” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card] was added for the same reason to many decks that could utilize Double Colorless Energy. The idea behind both is the same: to add a splashable Psychic-type Basic, one which can hit Buzzwole-GX for a Knock Out with Weakness. Mew-EX was particularly popular, played in 14 of the Collinsville day-two decks, and 12 of the Malmo day-two decks, whereas Mewtwo was played in eleven and six of the Collinsville / Malmo day-two decks.
Given the success of Buzzwole-GX — and more importantly, its prevalence — such techs are likely here to stay. If you don’t have one of these cards in your deck, consider it as a great way to improve your Buzzwole matchups.
Counter Cards
Since its release in Crimson Invasion, [card name=”Counter Energy” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”122″ c=”name”][/card] has been a card with a ton of potential. While it was used previously in decks such as my own Xerneas BREAK deck, it had been a card with a lot of potential but little utilization — until people remembered just how great Zoroark-GX is.
There are a few different builds of Zoroark + Counters decks that have come out, but most function the same way, utilizing Zoroark-GX’s incredible draw power to get to the cards they need. In this case, they can then get to their choice of “Counter” Pokemon — that is, a basic Pokemon that can OHKO an opposing GX for a single Counter Energy by utilizing Weakness — and a Counter Energy to let that Pokemon attack. These “Counter” Pokemon typically include [card name=”Sudowoodo” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”67″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Cobalion” set=”Steam Siege” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card], and either [card name=”Mew” set=”Fates Collide” no=”29″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Mewtwo” set=”Evolutions” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card], but can also include Pokemon such as [card name=”Shaymin” set=”Shining Legends” no=”7″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Mimikyu” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM99″ c=”name”][/card]. These Pokemon work particularly well against decks that rely on GXs to attack such as Zoroark and Buzzwole, as they allow you to swing the Prize trade into your favor, while also giving you a great comeback option if things start to go downhill. These Zoroark / Counter decks performed excellently in both Collinsville and Salvador, and you should expect them in Charlotte.
A Short-term Meta Prediction — Preparing for Charlotte
We now know what decks performed well, and what decks were popular overall. Now, the important thing is to utilize that information so that we can get a good idea of what to expect at tournaments going forward.
In general, the best-performing decks should see an uptick in prevalence. After the EUIC, new concepts such as Brokenvoir and ZoroPod became staples of the meta. Likewise, we should expect the top decks of these Regionals to start to see heavy play. I would expect many people to try out some of these new concepts, and try to innovate on them further.
Local metagames will certainly vary. That said, we can make a pretty decent guess at what the future meta will hold, both at local League Cups, as well as at our upcoming Regionals.
In this meta, we should expect to see the following (in no particular order) as the most popular decks:
- [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card] variants ([card name=”Golisopod-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”17″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Weavile” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Lycanroc-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card], etc.)
- [card name=”Buzzwole-GX” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] variants ([card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card], Lycanroc-GX)
[cardimg name=”Buzzwole-GX” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”57″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
Zoroark and Buzzwole were by far the most popular concepts from Collinsville and Malmo, and by far the most successful – over 30% of the field in Collinsville played either Zoroark or Buzzwole, and over 65% of the day-two decks in both of this weekend’s Regionals played one of the two cards. Five of the Top 8 played one of the two in Santiago — and all 8 of the Salvador top cut decks utilized one of the two cards. At this point, you should go into a Regional-size tournament expecting to hit each deck at least once, and should be prepared to run into them more often than that.
The diversity of both cards causes a bit of a problem when trying to design a deck to counter both of them; after all, we’ve named six different decks above, and those don’t include less common variants such as [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card] / Gardevoir-GX and Zoroark-GX / [card name=”Solgaleo-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card]. That said, if your deck can’t beat either Zoroark-GX or Buzzwole-GX, it shouldn’t be considered a reasonable play for Charlotte.
In addition to those, I would expect the following decks to be played, yet be less widespread:
- [card name=”Volcanion-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”26″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Ho-Oh-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”21″ c=”name”][/card]
- [card name=”Vikavolt” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”52″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Tapu Bulu-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM32″ c=”name”][/card]
- [card name=”Espeon-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”61″ c=”name”][/card] / Garbodor
- Metal [card name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card] variants (“Turbo”, [card name=”Magnezone” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”83″ c=”name”][/card], Garbodor)
- [card name=”Glaceon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”39″ c=”name”][/card]
- [card name=”Gardevoir-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card]
- [card name=”Greninja BREAK” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card]
Basically, this makes up the decks that saw a decent amount of play, and/or had a modest amount of success. Ho-Oh-GX, VikaBulu, and Espeon-GX decks were all rather popular, and have performed at least decently; I expect those three to show up at League Cups, especially initially. Necrozma and Glaceon-GX variants were popular, and while their success was far more modest, the fact that they are newer concepts will drastically decrease the likelihood of them being abandoned. For these, you should expect to see copies of the more successful lists early on, with those being refined and individualized as we get later into March and closer to Charlotte. Finally, while Gardevoir-GX and Greninja decks were the least successful on this list, the deck concepts remain strong enough that they will likely remain competitive, albeit with some tweaking from the prior lists. At League Cups, Gardevoir lists will likely vary based on personal preference, though I would expect to see heavier counts of Gallade as players refocus their attention on Zoroark decks. As for Greninja decks, I would be wary of underestimating them based on their Collinsville performance; after all, there were twice as many people playing [card name=”Giratina” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY184″ c=”name”][/card] to counter Greninja as there were playing Greninja itself. In a format that isn’t expecting it, and thus isn’t full of Giratina, Greninja can still be dangerous. Be on the lookout for it in your local Cups, and don’t be too surprised if one or two end up doing sneakily well in Charlotte.
That’s definitely a lot of decks to prepare for! Even after the above 14 decks, there are still plenty of “rogue” or less-played concepts you may run into. [card name=”Raichu-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”29″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Passimian” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM12″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Hoopa” set=”Shining Legends” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card] stall, [card name=”Silvally-GX” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”108″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Garchomp” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Empoleon” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”34″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Leafeon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”13″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Alolan Dugtrio” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”79″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Xerneas” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”107″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Sylveon-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”92″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Venusaur” set=”Shining Legends” no=”3″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Decidueye-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM37″ c=”name”][/card], Solgaleo-GX, spread decks, [card name=”Metagross-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”85″ c=”name”][/card]… all of these are Pokemon you may encounter – and those are just the ones that have already seen some play. While this list certainly doesn’t encompass all of the decks in this diverse format, I do believe that those will be the most popular, and thus the decks that one should consider when deciding on what to play.
Now, when I say “consider”, I don’t mean to imply that only the decks on this list will be viable options. Rather, these are the decks that you should expect to play against at any given tournament. So, whether you build your own rogue concept, or whether you decide to try out one of the decks on this list, you should focus your playtesting and thoughts against those listed decks. Don’t dismiss rogue concepts for your own play, but definitely keep in mind the strengths of what you will likely be playing against.
When making that decision about how to build your deck, go from the top down. That is, think first about how to approach the Zoroark and Buzzwole matchups, then focus on the tier two decks, then think about how to deal with the more uncommon concepts. From there, find out which deck works best for you against this field, and think about how you can build it to maximize its potential. If you have a deck that continually struggles against Buzzwole, but is great against pretty much everything else, think about what cards you can add in order to better deal with that matchup (such as Mew-EX and Mewtwo). If your deck struggles against both Zoroark-GX and Buzzwole-GX decks, it may be best to try a different concept. If your deck can manage to beat both consistently, test out what techs you may need for those tier-two decks – remember, those will likely make up just as many of your opponents as the tier-one decks.
Additionally, don’t forget to factor in your local meta in the case of League Cups. For example, during the last League Cup season, St. Louis typically had large numbers of Greninja and VikaBulu players, and so my choices had to adapt to that meta. A strong deck for me there wouldn’t necessarily be a strong deck for you in a different meta. The same will be the case now, so pay attention to what is over and under-represented. If in doubt though, stick to testing against what you know will be popular.
A Decklist and an Example
To demonstrate the above testing concepts, I’ll now share with you one of the concepts I’ve been working on with my brother, Alex Krekeler. If you aren’t liking your current options, maybe try this one! Either way, hopefully this example can help show how to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of your options.
This concept, Decidueye-GX / Hoopa, is a rather annoying deck that effectively functions as a Hoopa stall deck. In addition to our normal walls and disruption, we utilize Decidueye-GX to give your opponent yet another wall that they have to get through, while also giving you options for damage placement and card recovery. This deck list is still a bit of a work in progress, but the concept itself has proven incredibly strong in certain matchups. Here’s the list:
[decklist name=”Hoopa/Decidueye Stall” amt=”60″ caption=”” cname=”Giratina” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY184″][pokemon amt=”14″]4x [card name=”Hoopa” set=”Shining Legends” no=”55″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]3x [card name=”Rowlet” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”9″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]3x [card name=”Dartrix” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”10″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]3x [card name=”Decidueye-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”146″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]1x [card name=”Giratina” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY184″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/pokemon][trainers amt=”44″]3x [card name=”N” set=”Noble Victories” no=”101″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]3x [card name=”Professor Sycamore” set=”Steam Siege” no=”114″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]2x [card name=”Cynthia” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”148″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Skyla” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”122″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Brigette” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”161″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Guzma” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”143″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]2x [card name=”Team Flare Grunt” set=”Generations” no=”73″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Acerola” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”142″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Lusamine” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”110″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Delinquent” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”98″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Team Rocket’s Handiwork” set=”Fates Collide” no=”124″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”1″][/card]4x [card name=”Max Potion” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”164″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]4x [card name=”Puzzle of Time” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”109″ c=”deck2″ amt=”4″][/card]2x [card name=”Enhanced Hammer” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”162″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Field Blower” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”163″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]3x [card name=”Evosoda” set=”Generations” no=”62″ c=”deck2″ amt=”3″][/card]1x [card name=”Rare Candy” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”165″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]2x [card name=”Counter Catcher” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”120″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Fighting Fury Belt” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”99″ c=”deck2″ amt=”2″][/card]2x [card name=”Float Stone” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”137″ c=”deck2″ divide=”yes” amt=”2″][/card]1x [card name=”Parallel City” set=”BREAKthrough” no=”145″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/trainers][energy amt=”2″]1x [card name=”Grass Energy” set=”EX Emerald” no=”101″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card]1x [card name=”Super Boost Energy Prism Star” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”136″ c=”deck2″ amt=”1″][/card][/energy][/decklist][cardimg name=”Hoopa” set=”Shining Legends” no=”55″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
For those of you unfamiliar with Hoopa stall decks, the goal is basically to survive as long as possible, and thus getting your opponent to run out of cards in their deck. This deck does that wonderfully — between the four [card name=”Max Potion” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”128″ c=”name”][/card], four [card name=”Puzzle of Time” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”109″ c=”name”][/card], and Decidueye’s Hollow Hunt GX, you can potentially heal 11 times in a match! While my record so far may be only nine Max Potion used in a game, you also have options with [card name=”Acerola” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”142″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Lusamine” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”153″ c=”name”][/card], allowing you to potentially heal forever, so long as your opponent can’t get a one-hit Knock Out. To prevent that from happening, you also play a plethora of disruption cards, so even if they do have that potential, you can often get around it long enough to win anyway. In addition to Hollow Hunt, you can also utilize Decidueye’s Feather Arrow to pick off potential non-GX threats to your Hoopa, which often have less HP and are thus more vulnerable. It may take some time to do so, but this deck is all about survival and disruption, so that time is often there.
Now, a big reason I’ve chosen to highlight this deck is that, in addition to being fun to play and competitive, it gives us a great example on how to evaluate a deck against this meta. This deck, in particular, is rather matchup-based; some decks are incredibly easy to beat, others are difficult. This is always the question: the concept is neat, but how does it actually do against the decks we expect to see? Specifically, how does this deck do against the list of threats we wrote out above?
To start, let’s look at how it does against the big two: Zoroark-GX and Buzzwole-GX.
Against many [card name=”Zoroark-GX” set=”Shining Legends” no=”53″ c=”name”][/card] variants, this deck performs excellently. Many lack secondary attackers that can properly deal with Hoopa, and even for those that do, it is difficult for them to also get past your Decidueye-GX. The largest threat comes from the Weavile decks, since all of your Pokemon have Abilities, and thus the non-GX Weavile can effectively hit all of your Pokemon for plenty of damage. Against Garbodor variants, you have to be careful of Garbotoxin shutting off your Hoopa’s defenses, but they still struggle to Knock Out Decidueye-GX, and are sensitive to Energy disruption. Against [card name=”Lycanroc-GX” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”74″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Golisopod-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”17″ c=”name”][/card], or [card name=”Counter Energy” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”100″ c=”name”][/card] variants, this deck wins the vast majority of the time, as there is little they can do once you get established.
[card name=”Buzzwole-GX” set=”Crimson Invasion” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] variants, on the other hand, are tricky for this deck to deal with. Buzzwole-GX / Garbodor may be one of this deck’s worst matchups, as they can do all the things you don’t want them to do: they can shut off your Abilities, hit you with a non-GX (in [card name=”Carbink BREAK” set=”Fates Collide” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card]), and effectively KO Decidueye-GX through either Absorption GX, a three [card name=”Strong Energy” set=”Fates Collide” no=”115″ c=”name”][/card] Knuckle Impact with a [card name=”Choice Band” set=”Guardians Rising” no=”121″ c=”name”][/card] attached, or by setting up their damage with Jet Punch. This matchup is winnable through smart Energy disruption, but is difficult. The Buzzwole-GX / Lycanroc-GX variant, on the other hand, is less difficult to manage, mainly because you can now stall with Hoopa. Carbink and [card name=”Rockruff” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM06″ c=”name”][/card] can damage you, but not for enough damage to reliably threaten you, especially if you continually remove their Strong Energy. Decidueye-GX can also be useful for Knocking Out those threats, but that also comes with the risk of giving them a multi-Prize target, so be careful about trying to set up too many.
At this point in your testing, you should be able to analyze whether or not the deck has any potential for competitiveness. If both Zoroark-GX and Buzzwole-GX decks look unfavorable, I would stop, and look at a different deck. Obviously, if both look favorable, you’ve got a solid concept on your hands. But what about a case like this one? For this Hoopa deck, most Zoroark-GX decks seem favorable, while most Buzzwole-GX decks can be chalked up as unfavorable. If you’re evaluating for a League Cup meta, then you should think about which of the two decks you will be more likely to see. If the deck that you struggle against is more heavily played, then you may want to go in a different direction; likewise, if the deck you struggle against sees little play, you’re likely safe to continue. (Disclaimer here: this analysis only goes for evaluating the deck’s competitiveness. If you enjoy the deck you’re playing, and want to have some fun playing with it, by all means stick with it!)
For Regionals preparation, however, the field is a bit too vast to make the kind of meta prediction you may be able to make at a local event. For this case, we look at the percentages we expect. From our data above, we can see that about 14% of the field in St. Louis was Buzzwole-GX decks, with only about a quarter of those being the dreaded Garbodor build. While Buzzwole did see plenty of success in all of the tournaments so far, it is likely “avoidable” early. So, the deck appears to have a chance. Even if you do run into one Buzzwole-GX / Garbodor, you still have eight other rounds which you can win.
[cardimg name=”Volcanion-EX” set=”Steam Siege” no=”26″ align=”left” c=”none”][/cardimg]
Since this deck appears to have a shot against the top decks, we now look at our tier two list to see how we expect to fare during all of those other rounds. From our list, Volcanion and Metal decks stand out as potentially difficult, while most of the others seem manageable, if not favorable.
Indeed, testing has shown roughly those results. Volcanion’s non-EX attackers are tough to deal with, particularly since they hit Decidueye-GX for Weakness. Metal decks are slightly unfavorable, as [card name=”Solgaleo Prism Star” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Magnezone” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”83″ c=”name”][/card] give them effective attacking options against Hoopa, while [card name=”Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”90″ c=”name”][/card] can hit your Decidueye-GX hard enough to get a Knock Out. Both the [card name=”Garbodor” set=”BREAKpoint” no=”57″ c=”name”][/card] and Magnezone variants are tricky to deal with for these reasons, whereas the more “straight” Metal version is a bit more manageable. As for the other decks, most are favorable. Leaving in [card name=”Giratina” set=”XY Black Star Promos” no=”XY184″ c=”name”][/card] turns the Greninja matchup from an auto-loss to an auto-win, [card name=”Tapu Bulu-GX” set=”Sun and Moon Black Star Promos” no=”SM32″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Gardevoir-GX” set=”Burning Shadows” no=”93″ c=”name”][/card] are walled by Decidueye, and [card name=”Espeon-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”61″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Glaceon-GX” set=”Ultra Prism” no=”39″ c=”name”][/card] decks can’t effectively damage you.
Against all the other decks, you can pretty easily predict the matchup now that we have a good understanding of what the deck beats and loses to. Against decks with strong non-GX attackers that can also get around Decidueye-GX, this deck will struggle. If they can’t do either of those things, the matchup becomes incredibly easy. If they can do one of them, then our strategy should rely on utilizing the option they can’t get around. With that sort of thinking, you can put together a decent strategy against some decks, even if you haven’t prepared for them. This concept isn’t limited to just Hoopa decks; for any deck you play, if you have a decent idea of what strategies beat you, and which strategies you can use to win, you can effectively prepare for a field even as diverse as our current one.
For [card name=”Hoopa” set=”Shining Legends” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card] / [card name=”Decidueye-GX” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”12″ c=”name”][/card], I would say that after going through this list, we can see that the deck has a decent chance of doing well, though a bad string of matchups could lead to a bad day. For other decks though, this is the process you should be using to evaluate your options. Think of what matchups you are most likely to face, test heavily against those to check your deck’s viability, then go down from there. Whether you’re preparing for Charlotte, Portland, League Cups, or even future tournaments, strong deck evaluation can help you find consistent success.
Conclusion
Alright, so that’s all I’ve got for today! Hopefully you leave this article with a better idea of what to expect going forward into Charlotte, and can utilize this information when testing your own decks. If you have any questions, as always, feel free to ask!
Thanks for reading!
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