Metagaming, Practice, and the Quest for the Perfect Sixty!

Hey PokeBeach readers, Ciaran here with my second article. I thought I would tackle a subject I get asked about a lot; how do I pick my deck (and list) for a tournament? There are a plethora of different factors that go into how I choose what to play, including my familiarity with a deck, best of one vs best of three, round times, and what I expect the metagame to be. I will go over all this and more in this article — hopefully by the end, you will have learned a thing or two about selecting the best 60 for your next event!

Play What You Know

If there is only one piece of advice you take away from this article, I hope it is this one; only play decks that you are well-practised with, and know inside out! Pokemon is a game where it is better to be a master of one than a jack of all trades. Each deck has unique strategies, matchups, and builds, and it takes a lot of practice to achieve a high level of proficiency with a new deck. A Tier 2 deck played at 95-100% proficiency will always outperform someone playing a Tier 1 deck at 60-80% proficiency. So if you have a deck you’ve been playing for months, you know all the matchups, cards, and sequencing, I suggest sticking to it for your next tournament. Now let’s say you have time you can dedicate to practising before your next event… then I think it is ok to switch decks, but if you are switching decks at the last minute you are asking for trouble.

[cardimg name=”Gardevoir ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”245″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

If you have time, I do suggest playing some games with other meta decks so you understand what they are capable of and their win conditions. This will help you formulate your plans when you go up against them! Focus on mastering your deck first, however, if you have limited time to practice.

I am only considering two decks for my upcoming regionals; [card name=”Chien-Pao ex” set=”Paldea Evolved” no=”61″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Gardevoir ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”86″ c=”name”][/card]. Those are two decks that I know I can play at a high level, and I know all the matchups like the back of my hand. Even though I think decks like [card name=”Roaring Moon ex” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”124″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Giratina VSTAR” set=”Lost Origin” no=”131″ c=”name”][/card] are poised for success, I know I don’t have the time to learn them to the level where I would feel comfortable bringing them to a major tournament.

Tournament Structure and Time

The type of tournament you attend should also factor into what deck you play. The main difference between playing a large tournament, such as a Regionals compared to a League Cup is the best-of-one versus best-of-three format. Some decks that struggle to play three games in a 50-minute best-of-three format thrive in a 30-minute best-of-one format.

For example, Gardevoir ex is considered to be one of, if not the strongest deck in the format, but it is tough for the deck to finish three full games in 50 minutes. I took a look at the results from the most recent Regional Championships in Liverpool, and the players in Day 2 playing Gardevoir ex averaged 2.78 ties per player. Not a single one of the 18 players had zero ties either! When we look at a faster deck such as [card name=”Mew VMAX” set=”Fusion Strike” no=”114″ c=”name”][/card], we see it has an average of 1.8 ties per player. While a tie is better than a loss, it is difficult to make Top Cut with a multitude of ties. Especially since the bubble can be as high as 36 Match Points at some US Regionals!

Now let’s consider a League Cup where it is 30 minutes best of one, and the Top Cut is normally 60 minutes best of three. It is rare to tie a round at a League Cup since you only play one game, and once you get to the Top Cut there is normally more time. Even if you go to time in Top Cut, the game goes to the person who has taken more Prize cards after three turns of time, so you don’t need to worry about a tie.

If you are looking to play a slower deck to a Regional that’s ok, but make sure you are well-practiced at playing with the clock. Whenever I test for tournaments, I play with a timer to get an idea of how long my average game/matches are. Linking back to my first point, if you are well-practised with a deck you will be able to identify plays/lines easier, which allows you to play faster!

[cardimg name=”Rapid Strike Urshifu VMAX” set=”Brilliant Stars” no=”TG21″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Moreover, best of three is generally a more forgiving tournament structure for decks that are a bit more inconsistent. Chien-Pao ex and [card name=”Rapid Strike Urshifu VMAX” set=”Battle Styles” no=”88″ c=”name”][/card] are both extremely powerful decks when they are set up, but both struggle with consistency more than most of the other meta decks. A game where you can’t get set up will result in a loss in a best-of-one format, but in best-of-three, you still get two more chances to hopefully execute your set-up!

I generally favor more consistent decks for League Cups since I value being able to consistently set up and execute my strategy! For the past few months that has been Gardevoir ex. This isn’t to say you can’t bring a deck like Chien-Pao ex to a League Cup, I play it sometimes since I enjoy it, but I accept that I’m introducing a bit more variance into my run.

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Predicting The Metagame

Not only is it important that we figure out what deck we are going to play in a tournament, but we must figure out what everyone else is going to play! Every deck has good and bad matchups, but we want to avoid the worst ones. If our deck struggles against the most popular deck(s) then it will be hard to achieve success. We can’t beat every deck, but if we can minimize what percentage of the meta we are weak against then we can increase our chance of success.

When I pick my deck I try and break down the meta by what percent of my projected meta do I want to dodge, what percent do I want to play against, and what percent am I neutral about playing against.

You might hear players refer to “The Spreadsheet” when picking a deck. This means they crunch the numbers of the expected metashare of each deck and how each meta deck fares against one another to figure out the best choice statistically. This is simply taking a mathematical approach to deck selection.

I have made an example spreadsheet you can use to help with deck selection. To use it, make a copy and you can make your own edits. What the sheet does is allow you to put your matchup percentages and metashare expectations and spit out a score based on that. I didn’t include every deck and the percentages are rough, but hopefully, you get the idea of how an exercise like this can be useful. The methodology I use is quite simple so feel free to try and come up with a more advanced one by introducing more variables (eg: implementing tie rates, running simulations, etc…).

So we have a tool and an approach to integrating the metagame into our deck selection process, but how do we actually predict the meta? There are a couple of things we can take into consideration to help us make an educated guess, mainly other tournament results, but things such as online tournaments and content creators/big-name players (Eg: AzulGG) pushing a deck can affect a deck’s metashare as well.

How to Utilize Tournament Results

Let’s start by looking into how we can use tournament results to help predict the meta for future tournaments. In general, I find there are three buckets of players after a big event (Eg: Regionals or Internationals); the first are the players who flock to the best deck or what performed the best at the last event, the second are the players who want to counter the best deck, and third are the players who are faithful to their decks no matter what.

[cardimg name=”Giratina VSTAR” set=”Crown Zenith GG” no=”GG69″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

The first group of players are the easiest to predict. When a deck sees a high level of success it is rational to expect it to take up a large share of the meta at the following event. We see this with [card name=”Giratina VSTAR” set=”Lost Origin” no=”131″ c=”name”][/card] currently. The deck has been performing well at regionals across the world, and despite some counters being played more, the deck is still seeing an increased metashare each tournament!

Now if we know that we need to be prepared for the best deck, other players will as well. This is where the second group of players fall, the ones who will counter the best deck. This is where we can try and stay one step ahead of the meta by preemptively countering the counters. If you’re able to figure out which decks counter the current meta and/or are primed for success, then we know what additional decks to be ready for.

Let’s use the Portland Regional Championships as an example to illustrate this point, and how you can see a predictable shift in the meta.

The main takeaway from Portland is that [card name=”Giratina VSTAR” set=”Lost Origin” no=”131″ c=”name”][/card] performed exceptionally well, with two of them facing off in the finals and a massive metashare on Day 2. We also see the usual suspects in [card name=”Charizard ex” set=”Obsidian Flames” no=”125″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Miraidon ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”81″ c=”name”][/card], and [card name=”Gardevoir ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”86″ c=”name”][/card]. These decks all have a loyal player base and seem to deviate by 1-3% in metashare each tournament.

We can conclude Giratina VSTAR is going to be the deck to beat heading into the next Regionals (in this example, Charlotte). With this information, we can start guessing what decks or cards people will play to counter it. So right away let’s start by looking at the decks that are strong against Giratina VTSRA. Decks such as [card name=”Roaring Moon ex” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”124″ c=”name”][/card], [card name=”Mew VMAX” set=”Fusion Strike” no=”114″ c=”name”][/card], and Rapid Strike box generally have a strong Giratina VSTAR matchup. When we look at the Day 2 metashare, Roaring Moon ex and Mew VMAX were both already present, so we know these decks have proven success in addition to their strong Giratina matchup. While Rapid Strike box had a decent metashare Day 1, we also know that [card name=”Jirachi” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”126″ c=”name”][/card] is most likely going to go up in play due to Giratina VSTAR doing well. This probably doesn’t bode well for Rapid Strike box. So using this analysis we can probably predict that Roaring Moon ex and Mew VMAX will see more play at the following Regional Championships.

When we look at the metashare for Charlotte, we can see that both Roaring Moon ex and Mew VMAX made it into the top 5 most played decks. Obviously, I have the benefit of seeing the metagame before writing the analysis I described above, but hopefully, it helps illustrate how you can try and use tournament results to predict what decks and cards will see an uptick in play at the next tournament.

Heading into Knoxville let’s apply the same logic from beforehand. We can see that [card name=”Charizard ex” set=”Obsidian Flames” no=”125″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Miraidon ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”81″ c=”name”][/card] have stayed at a fairly consistent play rate throughout this format, so I am confident predicting they will stay at a similar percentage plus or minus a few percent. [card name=”Giratina VSTAR” set=”Lost Origin” no=”131″ c=”name”][/card] had another strong weekend so I think it will stay in that 12-15% range. [card name=”Roaring Moon ex” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”124″ c=”name”][/card] had a successful weekend, and we saw an uptick in [card name=”Mew VMAX” set=”Fusion Strike” no=”114″ c=”name”][/card], which is a strong matchup for the deck. The deck is also simpler to play so I think it will continue climbing in play. Mew VMAX has a loyal player base and just won Liverpool Regionals so I think it is safe to say it will also continue to see play at the same or higher rate.

Now the deck I think to watch out for is [card name=”Gardevoir ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”86″ c=”name”][/card]. If we expect Roaring Moon ex and Mew VMAX to climb in play that bodes well for the deck. It also has a strong matchup against Charizard ex and an even one with Giratina VSTAR. Gardevoir ex had one of its lowest play rates of the season in Charlotte, but it is primed for a strong showing in Knoxville! I predict it will have a metashare above 10% this weekend.

In terms of a tech card to look out for, I think [card name=”Spiritomb” set=”Paldea Evolved” no=”89″ c=”name”][/card] will see some more play. Not only did Mew VMAX just win a Regionals, but the card shuts off [card name=”Galarian Moltres V” set=”Astral Radiance” no=”TG20″ c=”name”][/card] in Roaring Moon ex, and [card name=”Rotom V” set=”Crown Zenith” no=”45″ c=”name”][/card] in Charizard ex decks. The card’s increased utility in the meta will have players looking to include it in their decks! It’s also useful for the [card name=”Snorlax” set=”Pokemon GO” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card] matchup.

Rounding Out the Sixty

Hopefully using the techniques above you have landed on a deck you want to play or have it narrowed down to a couple of choices. Once we have our deck selected we need to figure out the 60 cards we want to play — there are normally tons of strong lists you can find online from previous tournaments to use as your starting point, but I know every player has their preferences, so make sure you are playing 60 cards you are comfortable with! To refine our deck I think we need to decide which tech cards to play.

[cardimg name=”Minior” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”201″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

When selecting what techs to put into my decks I generally ask myself two questions; first, how many matchups is this card applicable in? Some techs have narrow applications, such as [card name=”Minior” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”99″ c=”name”][/card]. While the card greatly improves your Snorlax matchup, it is pretty much useless in every other matchup. An example of a card with broad application is [card name=”Avery” set=”Chilling Reign” no=”130″ c=”name”][/card] — while it doesn’t outright win any matchup, it is strong into decks that rely on a large Bench such as Gardevoir ex and [card name=”Chien-Pao ex” set=”Paldea Evolved” no=”61″ c=”name”][/card]. At worst, the card is simply a Supporter that draws three cards. While it won’t tilt a matchup as heavily as Minior does, it will have more utility when going up against any deck.

This segues into my second question; what is the opportunity cost for playing a tech? If I am putting a tech into my deck then that means I have to take another card out. If I put in a tech to improve one or two matchups how much does that affect my other matchups? Sticking with the Minior example, if I include the card in my deck I probably improve my Snorlax matchup by 20-30%, however, if I took out a consistency card such as an [card name=”Ultra Ball” set=”Sun and Moon” no=”135″ c=”name”][/card] or a Supporter then I would expect my overall win rate to drop by 1-3% against every other deck since every time I draw Minior it is a dead card, and even worse I could start with it! If Snorlax is going to be 15% of the meta then maybe it makes sense to include Minior, but if the deck stays in that 5-10% range then I’d rather take my chances avoiding it. Try using the spreadsheet I shared earlier in the article — do a thought experiment where you switch your decks’ matchups based on a tech and see if the score goes up or down.

Practice

After doing some analysis, hopefully, we have a list we feel confident trying out. The last thing to do to prepare for the tournament now is to practice! I think it is important to not mindlessly play games. Make sure you are practising with a purpose! I’ll break down the methods I use to practice:

First, treat your testing games as if they were real tournament games; play with a timer, Prize check properly, and cut each other’s decks. It is good to get in the habit of replicating what you will be doing on game day! Getting used to playing under time is good as well. Maybe you realize that you need to improve your pace of play or that your deck is struggling to finish three games and you might need to concede games you’re losing quicker!

Second, try and discuss difficult plays with your testing partner(s); it is difficult to see what you are doing wrong or figure out the best plays on your own all the time, so leverage your testing partners! When you have a tough decision, pause the clock and discuss collectively the pros and cons of each play. Working together you will be able to discuss more lines and maybe see ones you missed!

[cardimg name=”Practice Studio” set=”Paldea Evolved” no=”186″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]

Third, study the most common lists of popular decks; not only is it important to know your own deck well, but knowing what you’re up against can be just as important. Knowing what card counts, attackers, and techs are popular currently will help you formulate game plans and not get caught off guard. I normally go on Limitless and look at the lists that did the best for each archetype. This gives me a general idea of what most players will include in their decks. Now obviously players can have different builds, but familiarizing yourself with common lists will go a long way.

Finally, if you’re trying to learn a specific deck I think it is super powerful to watch top players play the deck. Something I do with a lot of my students is have us watch a stream game together and pause before every turn starts. Together we come up with what we think the optimal plan for the turn is and then every time a decision comes up we pause and discuss that as well. This works great if you don’t have anyone to practice with either. You can use this approach to shadow strong players and see if you pick the same plays. If the person on stream picks something different than what you would have done then you can reflect and try and figure out why.

Through using these practice methods, hopefully, you will gain confidence in your deck and be able to finalize your deck for your tournament!

Conclusion

That will bring this article to a close. I know this was different from normal deck breakdown articles, so let me know what you thought and if you’d like to see me cover topics like this in the future! Hopefully, you learned something about approaching deck selection for a tournament. If you have any more questions on the topic feel free to leave them in the comments!

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