Hold These L’s: Louisville and Lille Meta Analysis
With Lille Regionals finishing up, we have now seen quite a developed metagame in the Stellar Crown format with several tournaments already having taken place. Going forward, the Latin America International Championships will also use the Stellar Crown format, so this will probably end up being the most played format this season. Not until after LAIC will Surging Sparks be legal, though there are lots of interesting cards in that set that I will write about in the near future. Today, however, I will take a look at the two most recent Regionals and analyze the interesting meta developments. This will help us chart a course forward and make sense of all the data we have available.
[cardimg name=”Raging Bolt ex ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”208″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
At the previous week’s Louisville Regional, my [card name=”Raging Bolt ex ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”123″ c=”name”][/card] list actually won the tournament, although unfortunately not in my hands. I hit some rough matchups and barely whiffed Day 2, but that’s neither here nor there. More interestingly, Lost Zone box took second place out of nowhere after completely disappearing off the face of the earth. Some young top players decided to try their luck at avoiding [card name=”Regidrago VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card] by bringing Lost Zone box, and Worlds quarter-finalist Michael Davidson was able to do so, bringing the deck all the way to the finals. The rest of Top 8 was varied, though notably with two [card name=”Lugia VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”139″ c=”name”][/card] decks present. There was also a clean top eight cut at that tournament, so there was no need to play an asymmetrical top cut. I also want to point out that for each of the three Regionals I’ve attended, I wrote an article here about my deck right beforehand. This includes the deck that won Louisville and the [card name=”Terapagos ex” set=”Stellar Crown” no=”128″ c=”name”][/card] deck I brought to the win-and-in for cut in Dortmund. In case you’re ever at a loss for a deck to play, I’ll usually be spilling my thoughts before each major tournament.
At the more recent Lille Regionals, it was the Regidrago VSTAR show all the way. This deck completely dominated at the top, winning the tournament and taking four spots in the top 9 asymmetrical top cut. [card name=”Dragapult ex” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”130″ c=”name”][/card] managed to make the finals, with Raging Bolt ex, [card name=”Snorlax” set=”Pokemon GO” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card], and two Lugia VSTAR rounding things out in top cut. Lugia VSTAR has been one of the most consistent performers in this format thus far due to its impeccable matchup spread. I think Regidrago VSTAR is an alright deck, and I attribute its dominance in Lille to the fact that a lot of the best players at this tournament decided to play it. Now let’s talk about the individual decks going forward.
Lugia VSTAR
While Lugia VSTAR hasn’t had any big wins, it has been the most consistent and dominant deck across this entire format. Lugia VSTAR has made top cut at every tournament since Stellar Crown dropped, including two cuts at Louisville and Lille each. It also had two more Top 16 spots at both tournaments! Lugia VSTAR has been able to put up these results despite somewhat middling popularity. This is because Lugia VSTAR’s matchup spread in the current meta is incredible. Lugia VSTAR has a bad reputation as a somewhat inconsistent deck where a lot of things can go wrong. While this may be true, it has such an advantage in any game where it’s able to set up simply because most opposing decks aren’t able to deal with it.
If you’re a Lugia VSTAR player, your biggest fear is Lightning-type decks, however, even [card name=”Miraidon ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”81″ c=”name”][/card] is a winnable matchup, with [card name=”Iron Thorns ex” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”77″ c=”name”][/card] being the only auto-loss. If you can avoid running into Iron Thorns ex, you are likely to have a solid tournament run with Lugia VSTAR. The kicker here is that these Lightning-types are quite unpopular in the current meta, represented by extremely low meta shares. This is because those decks are pretty bad, especially into the wider field; although the Lightning decks are great against Lugia VSTAR, this meta is varied enough that the Lugia VSTAR matchup alone isn’t enough. In particular, they struggle greatly against the most popular deck: [card name=”Raging Bolt ex ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”123″ c=”name”][/card]. This all adds up to create the perfect conditions for Lugia VSTAR, hence why it has had such great success.
[cardimg name=”Cinccino ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”183″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
One interesting inflection point with [card name=”Lugia VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”139″ c=”name”][/card] is the counts of [card name=”Cinccino ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”137″ c=”name”][/card]. Rahul Reddy’s successful list plays a thin 1-1 line, but despite his success, most players play a thicker line. 2-2 is most common, but I’ve also seen 1-2. Finally, a list playing 3-3 actually just made Top 8 at Lille. The 1-2 line is objectively terrible if you ask me — Lugia VSTAR can win games without Cinccino, and even the threat of it is sometimes strong enough, so I think a 1-1 line is fine. A 2-2 line is also decent as you can chain Cinccino in certain matchups, or threaten another one if [card name=”Minccino ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card] gets sniped down. I don’t think a 1-2 line makes any sense, as you are almost never summoning one with Lugia’s VSTAR power. 3-3 seems like a bit much, especially in this format with [card name=”Dusknoir” set=”Shrouded Fable” no=”20″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Regidrago VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card], as they can easily get sniped down. I wouldn’t want to rely on it too much, and the deck is tight on space.
Another noteworthy meta trend is decks completely neglecting to include [card name=”Manaphy” set=”Brilliant Stars” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card]. It’s unclear if this trend will continue, but it exposes some glaring vulnerabilities to [card name=”Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”64″ c=”name”][/card], which Lugia VSTAR can easily make use of. A lot of Lugia VSTAR lists don’t play the Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex, but I think it’s pretty good right now. If people start to fear and respect decks like Regidrago VSTAR and Lost Box more after their recent successes, however, it’s possible that Manaphy makes its way back into lists.
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Lugia VSTAR is objectively a good play in the current format, and its results stand out above many other decks. Its matchup spread is too good to ignore, and all you have to do is dodge Iron Thorns. I personally dislike the deck as it has little agency and is inconsistent. It also contends with lots of other decks that get a huge advantage for going first. Of course, I can’t recommend against playing it… I think Rahul’s list with cards like [card name=”Iron Bundle” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”56″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Raikou V” set=”Brilliant Stars” no=”48″ c=”name”][/card] is the best and should be copied more than it is. Iron Bundle is extremely strong and efficient in the deck, though I am not quite as convinced on the Raikou V, and 1-1 Cinccino seems fine to me. Ciaran Farah’s Top 8 list from Louisville is probably the cleanest and most simple version, and it should be the gold standard as the normal Lugia VSTAR list. I also think that Wellspring Mask Ogrepon ex should be more of a consideration going forward.
At future tournaments in this format, I would definitely expect to face Lugia VSTAR, and I’ll want to be playing a deck with at least a decent chance of victory against it.
Lost Zone Box
Lost Zone box got some attention after its second-place Louisville finish. After Shrouded Fable was released, and Regidrago VSTAR became broken, Lost Zone box disappeared because it can’t beat Regidrago VSTAR. After Stellar Crown, Regidrago VSTAR somewhat decreased in popularity, even though many top players still favor the deck. Lost Zone box is a deck that gambles on avoiding Regidrago VSTAR, but it’s not as though Lost Zone box is a broken deck even if it manages to do so. I think Lost Zone box’s second-place finish was lightning in a bottle, where it ran into favorable circumstances. It still has contentious matchups outside of Regidrago VSTAR, so it’s not like [card name=”Lugia VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”139″ c=”name”][/card] where you have an easy time if you avoid your auto-loss. The deck isn’t bad, but it isn’t that good either.
Overall, I wouldn’t pay Lost Zone box any mind for the time being. It has too low of a meta share to worry about facing, and it’s not good enough to play. As far as the list goes, it has been rather standardized, and it seems fine to me. I don’t think the deck is anything special, but perhaps if I gave it more time and attention, my opinion could change.
Raging Bolt ex
[cardimg name=”Slither Wing” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”203″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
I wrote about [card name=”Raging Bolt ex ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”123″ c=”name”][/card] in my last article, so I don’t have too much to add from there. In the article, my list had the baby [card name=”Raging Bolt” set=”Stellar Crown” no=”111″ c=”name”][/card], but we switched to [card name=”Slither Wing” set=”Paradox Rift” no=”107″ c=”name”][/card] for the tournament. Slither Wing is objectively better in a wide variety of situations, whereas Raging Bolt is better at simply killing [card name=”Mimikyu” set=”Paldea Evolved” no=”97″ c=”name”][/card] and dealing with decks that include Mimikyu. I thought that if we were going to bother playing a single-Prize Pokemon in the first place, it would be for the sole purpose of handling Mimikyu, so it ought to be the card that does it the best. I fell to the temptation of Slither Wing, using un-tested rationale that it could still beat Mimikyu. Of course, it’s much better than baby Raging Bolt in many other scenarios and matchups. These conflicting lines of thought were a struggle for me, and while I did use Slither Wing and enjoy a lot of the lines it opens, I was ultimately punished hard for cutting the baby Raging Bolt.
Stall decks should be prepared to deal with a Slither Wing, and I lost a must-win round in Round 7 against [card name=”Snorlax” set=”Pokemon GO” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card] stall to get knocked out of the tournament. If I had the baby Raging Bolt instead, this would have been an easy win, however, there were some spots earlier where Slither Wing was useful, so it’s hard to tell. I was also quite unlucky to run into two [card name=”Gardevoir ex” set=”Scarlet and Violet” no=”86″ c=”name”][/card] decks, which is a terrible matchup, and also an extremely low meta share deck. Of course, my list won the tournament, so I think it’s the optimal way to play the deck. I still go back and forth on Slither Wing vs. baby Raging Bolt to this day.
That said, Raging Bolt ex remains an extremely popular deck, and you’re almost guaranteed to face at least one at any tournament. I think Raging Bolt ex remains an excellent play– the deck is broken, offering way too much efficient output for such low effort. It also has the advantage of being able to play second in an environment where most decks desperately want to go first. Raging Bolt ex has a somewhat balanced matchup spread, and all major decks are at least playable matchups.
Regidrago VSTAR
This brings me to our next deck — [card name=”Regidrago VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card] is notorious for being a fantastic and borderline overpowered deck with one glaring weakness; the Raging Bolt ex matchup. Even with [card name=”Jamming Tower” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”153″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Radiant Charizard” set=”Pokemon GO” no=”11″ c=”name”][/card], I am convinced that the Raging Bolt ex matchup is atrocious. Despite this, droves of top players continue to force Regidrago VSTAR, so it still has decent results. Of course, it completely dominated Lille, which is the most recent tournament. I played Regidrago VSTAR to Baltimore, and of course, I faced four Raging Bolt ex in Day 1.
I can’t stomach playing a deck with a near auto-loss to the number one deck by far (especially after the Baltimore fiasco), and I also think the deck is relatively inconsistent. That said, it’s undeniably a strong deck and it is putting up good results. I do think Regidrago VSTAR will trend slightly up after Lille, so it’s best to be prepared for it. As for the list, I think Jamming Tower is copium, as you still lose to Raging Bolt ex, so you may as well play a card that actually does something instead. I also think [card name=”Hisuian Goodra VSTAR” set=”Lost Origin” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card] is unnecessary — while Hisuian Goodra VSTAR is a great attacker, there are stronger things you can be doing with your turn. The lists are almost all uniform at this point, so I don’t have much say aside from that.
Snorlax Stall
[card name=”Snorlax” set=”Pokemon GO” no=”55″ c=”name”][/card] put up a Top 4 and a Top 16 at Lille, alongside two Top 16’s at Louisville. This is particularly notable considering Snorlax’s low meta share. Snorlax is always a meta-call type of deck, and right now, I don’t think it’s a particularly good one. Regidrago VSTAR and [card name=”Lugia VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”139″ c=”name”][/card] are nearly unwinnable matchups, and they both seem to be trending up. Although [card name=”Dusknoir” set=”Shrouded Fable” no=”20″ c=”name”][/card] decks are beatable, they are extremely volatile matchups that come with a very real chance of getting blown out of the game. Snorlax is interesting because it strongly punishes the average players who don’t know what to do against it. What’s more, it is one of the few decks with a convincingly favorable [card name=”Raging Bolt ex ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”123″ c=”name”][/card] matchup.
[cardimg name=”Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”215″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
Snorlax lists are all over the place; Sander’s Top 16 list doesn’t even play [card name=”Rotom V” set=”Lost Origin” no=”58″ c=”name”][/card], and it is by far the most unique list. Ryan Antonucci (Top 16 Louisville) is the only one interested in teching for Lugia VSTAR with [card name=”Temple of Sinnoh” set=”Astral Radiance” no=”155″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Giacomo” set=”Paldea Evolved” no=”182″ c=”name”][/card]. Another Top 16 list plays [card name=”Regieleki” set=”Astral Radiance” no=”51″ c=”name”][/card], which I think is good. With Lugia VSTAR’s upward trend, I also think Snorlax needs to have a way to deal with it, as the matchup is essentially an auto-loss normally.
My hottest take is that [card name=”Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”112″ c=”name”][/card] is bad in the deck now. The matchups it’s good against are primarily [card name=”Regidrago VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card] and [card name=”Charizard ex” set=”Obsidian Flames” no=”125″ c=”name”][/card]; you lose to Regidrago VSTAR anyway, and you can convincingly beat Charizard ex with Snorlax’s retreat lock. Snorlax lists play [card name=”Mist Energy ” set=”Temporal Forces” no=”161″ c=”name”][/card] to try and deal with Regidrago VSTAR, but it doesn’t work because Regidrago VSTAR decks all play Temple of Sinnoh anyway. As always, I wouldn’t worry too much about Snorlax simply because it has such a low meta share. It is worth noting that your chance of facing Snorlax increases as you progress in the tournament, as it tends to have a high Day 2 conversion rate. Even at that point, there’s still a somewhat low chance of facing it.
Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR
[card name=”Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR” set=”Astral Radiance” no=”40″ c=”name”][/card] is a cool aggressive deck that is probably the most middle-of-the-road deck in the current format. It didn’t make cut at Lille, but did make Top 4 at Louisville and Dortmund. Its results are undeniably good, but not as standout as most of these other decks, and its popularity in terms of meta share is consistently middling as well. I don’t have too much to say about Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR and I haven’t played with it much. The lists are completely standardized — its matchups are balanced and not very polar, but the actual games it plays are volatile due to [card name=”Dusknoir” set=”Shrouded Fable” no=”20″ c=”name”][/card]’s characteristics and aggression. Most decks have a playable matchup into Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR, except for those that consistently lose to a turn-two [card name=”Radiant Greninja” set=”Astral Radiance” no=”46″ c=”name”][/card] (such as [card name=”Dragapult ex” set=”Twilight Masquerade” no=”130″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Terapagos ex” set=”Stellar Crown” no=”128″ c=”name”][/card]). Even [card name=”Manaphy” set=”Brilliant Stars” no=”41″ c=”name”][/card] can’t save them, as Dusknoir will KO it first.
Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR seems like a fine deck to play if you’re so inclined, though it is unfavored into Raging Bolt ex, which is tough. It’s also worth thinking about Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR as a deck that you’re likely to face up against.
Terapagos ex
Myself and some other top players considered Terapagos ex to be one of the best “Day 0 meta calls” of the Stellar Crown format. That is to say that the deck was best before anyone knew about it or figured out the best way to play it. I still think my list is good, but Terapagos ex itself is much less appealing now than it was then. It failed to appear in the Top 16 of Lille, though it did make Top 8 at Louisville. The deck is fine, and it shares many similarities to Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR.
[cardimg name=”Terapagos ex” set=”Stellar Crown” no=”170″ align=”right” c=”none”][/cardimg]
One of the things I dislike about Terapagos ex is that it has somewhat low agency, as you are relying on opening with outs to [card name=”Fan Rotom” set=”Stellar Crown” no=”118″ c=”name”][/card] and Terapagos ex. If you don’t, you simply lose on the spot. That said, in games where you do get to play, it has a somewhat high skill ceiling. In any case, its openings are pure variance. Terapagos ex also greatly enjoys going first, so much so that going second feels like a bit of a disadvantage. Now that the format has stabilized a little bit, Terapagos ex does not seem as dominant. It is better than Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR in some ways, but it does not have the unfair option of Radiant Greninja, which easily destroys some decks. On top of that, it struggles to deal with opposing snipe attackers itself.
I could see a future where Terapagos ex falls off rapidly, but for now, best to be prepared to face one or two at your next tournament.
Charizard ex
[card name=”Charizard ex” set=”Obsidian Flames” no=”125″ c=”name”][/card] had a decent showing at Louisville, making Top 4 and Top 16, however, it was completely absent from Top 16 at both Lille and the earlier Dortmund. I think Charizard ex is falling off in a hostile meta. It can get run off the board by aggressive decks that use [card name=”Dusknoir” set=”Shrouded Fable” no=”20″ c=”name”][/card] or [card name=”Radiant Greninja” set=”Astral Radiance” no=”46″ c=”name”][/card], and it is also a bit unfavored against [card name=”Regidrago VSTAR” set=”Silver Tempest” no=”136″ c=”name”][/card]. Charizard ex is fine, but it’s definitely dropped in terms of meta share. It would not be unusual to go an entire tournament without facing Charizard ex once, which is crazy to say after the past year of its dominance. It even got recently buffed with Dusknoir and [card name=”Briar” set=”Stellar Crown” no=”132″ c=”name”][/card], yet it’s still struggling.
Goodbye For Now
I hope you like my current meta breakdown, hopefully it helps you for any upcoming tournaments like Gdansk and Buenos Aires Regionals in the next few weeks, or LAIC after that. That’s all I have for now. Thanks for reading!
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